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Seasonal Trading in Commodity Futures: Evidence from Regression and Singular Spectrum Signals

Kosch, Ralph et al.
arXiv (All) · Papers
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portfolio-managementstatistical-finance
Commodity futures are shaped by harvest cycles, weather shocks, storage conditions, and seasonal demand, but it remains unclear whether recurring patterns yield robust out-of-sample trading profits. Existing research documents return seasonality in commodity futures as well as more complex seasonal
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