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Capability Emergence Can Be Forecast: Per-Seed, In Advance, With Calibrated Intervals, Certified False Alarms, and a Blind Pre-Registered Gate
Emergent capabilities are widely treated as unpredictable: loss improves smoothly while abilities appear abruptly. Prior work offers early-warning indicators but never scores them as forecasts: no lead time at controlled false-alarm rate, no calibration, no negatives, no blind tests. We supply that
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