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User-Level Handover Decision Making Based on Machine Learning Approaches
arXiv:2609.22593v1 [cs.LG] 18 Sep 2026
João P. S. H. Lima, Alvaro A. M. de Medeiros, Eduardo P. de Aguiar, Vicente A. de Sousa Jr. and Tarciana C. B. Guerra
Abstract—This Letter covers a broad comparison of methods for classification and regression applications for a user-level handover decision making in scenarios with adverse propagation conditions involving buildings, coverage holes, and shadowing effects. The simulation campaigns are based on network simulator ns-3. The comparison encompasses classical machine learning approaches, such as KNN, SVM, and neural networks, but also state-of-the-art fuzzy logic systems and latter boosting machines. The results indicate that SVM and MLP are the most suitable for the classification of the best handover target, although fuzzy system SOFL can perform similarly with lower processing time. Additionally, for the download time estimation, LightGBM provides the smallest error with short processing time, even in hard propagation scenarios. Index Terms—Machine learning, Fuzzy, Handover, ns-3.
I. I NTRODUCTION Two key concepts adopted by next-generation networks are cell densification and operation at high frequencies. Although larger bandwidth is available, enabling higher data rates, the propagation on higher frequencies limits the cell coverage area. A fundamental cellular procedure directly affected by this scenario is the handover (HO), which is the transfer of a communication session (e.g., a call, a video stream, a file download) from one cell to another without loss or interruption of service. Since the User Equipment (UE) must switch between physical channels during such procedure, it requires very rapid decisions from the cellular network in order to guarantee the Quality of Experience (QoE). The number of handovers is expected to increase notably, specially considering propagation-intensive scenarios (e.g. high-frequency urban cells, outdoor-to-indoor coverage) whose severe propagation situations cause areas with meaningful signal degradation, creating non-deterministic coverage holes. Three characteristics are required from evolved handover procedures in order to provide solid work in upcoming mobile communication systems: seamless (no interruption); spectral-efficiency aware (controlled signaling load); and smart (decision-making leveraged by machine learning and the vast amount of information available in the network). The current HO schemes in 3GPP networks (4G and 5G) are set upon some characteristic events, as depicted in Table I [1]. UEs are supposed to provide frequent measurement reports João Lima is with CPQD (e-mail: [email protected]). Alvaro Medeiros and Eduardo Aguiar are with Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil (e-mails: {alvaro, eduardo.aguiar}@engenharia.ufjf.br). Alvaro Medeiros is also with Munster Technological University, Cork, Ireland. Vicente Sousa and Tarciana Guerra are with Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil (e-mails: {tarciana.guerra.051, vicente.sousa}@ufrn.edu.br). This study was financed in part by FUNTTEL/Finep and the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nı́vel Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001. The proof of concept simulations provided by this Letter was supported by High Performance Computing Center (NPAD/UFRN). Digital Object Identifier: 10.14209/jcis.2022.11
TABLE I C HARACTERISTIC EVENTS FOR 3GPP H ANDOVER [1]. Event
Description
A1 A2
Primary cell (PC) signal power becomes better than a threshold PC signal power becomes worse than a threshold Secondary cell (SC) signal power becomes better than PC by an offset SC signal power becomes better than a threshold
A3 A4
to the base station, known as enhanced Node-B (eNB) in 4G standard, containing received signal metrics, such as Reference Signal Received Power (RSRP) and Reference Signal Received Quality (RSRQ). Accordingly, the HO procedures occur with simple power level comparisons based on events of those measurements, being denominated as deterministic HOs. Despite its simple implementation, this configuration may lead to numerous inefficient, unnecessary or ping-pong HOs, flooding network channels with counterproductive signaling load, and degrading spectral efficiency. Machine learning (ML) applications to develop smarter handovers are numerous. The authors in [2] implement a Bayesian regression method for HO improvements in high-speed trains in South Korea, whereas authors in [3] applies K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) for possible real-time HO decisions in vehicular networks. In [4], ML approaches are used to reduce latency and classify the best cell available for HO. In [5] and [6] fuzzy logic and reinforcement learning is used to for optimize traditional HO parameters, such as time-to-trigger and HO margin. The work from [7] compares different computational intelligence models for HO parameter tuning while solution in [8] employs LightGBM to predict mobile network traffic. A lane-changing algorithm for autonomous vehicles is developed in [9] based on Extreme Gradient Boosting. The authors of [10] promote a rich survey on HO management and 4G and 5G tendencies, while [11] offers a vast survey on autonomous HO management in the heterogeneous network context. In [12], the development of neural networks in HO mechanism were implemented at different levels, and an extensive database was produced. These works have demonstrated the capacity of different configurations of neural networks-handover integration to outperform classical 3GPP HO methods. As a plenty of methodologies are developed for smart HO, this work aims to bring a broad comparison of methods in user-level scenarios of mobility in 3GPP networks, based in data set from [12]. In this Letter, the classification addresses the determination of the best HO target, whereas the regression estimates the time and percentage of download that a mobile user performs while moving and requesting a HO. Coverage holes and shadowing effects are modeled into simulation scenarios to emulate an urban environment. The coverage
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hole is a complete lack of coverage in a particular region, representing a connection interruption, e.g., due to a mmWave severe propagation condition. Thus, this Letter extends the solution and results of [12] with the following contributions: • Enhancing the comparison of ML classification approaches, including most recent fuzzy logic systems; • Estimating download duration and percentage of completion, providing new inputs for HO decision, using classical and state-of-the-art approaches, such as latter boosting machines (not increasing data acquisition complexity to feed learning algorithms); • Evaluating of fuzzy-based HO methods on urban scenarios with the presence of buildings, shadowing effects, and coverage holes (evaluation also includes network-related Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and algorithms’ processing time). II. S YSTEM M ODELLING AND E VALUATED S CENARIOS The environment setup relies on [13] using version 3.22 of Network Simulator ns-3, as presented in Fig. 1. It counts with 3 eNBs, 3 UEs, and an obstacle near eNB 2. The UE 1 starts simultaneously to download a file and move straight with a random angle from −60° to 30°, with a constant speed of 60 km/h. Quickly, it escapes from the coverage area of eNB 1 and enters the coverage area of eNBs 2 and 3, requesting handover. For each scenario, about 1200 runs are analyzed. The levels of RSRP and RSRQ are captured every 200 ms, feeding the input database to evaluate ML algorithms. The download process uses the well-known TCP protocol with the file size of 15 MB. Finally, the simulation is carried for 100 s. In this Letter, two scenarios are explored. The first one is based on the Okumura-Hata propagation model, pondering only path loss as large scale attenuation, chosen for being a widely used deterministic model for characterizing urban and suburban areas. This scenario may represent a situation with averaged RSRQ and RSRP, in which instantaneous values are filtered (e.g., moving average filter), flattening shadowing and small-scale fading effects. The second scenario sums the random shadowing effect to the Okumura-Hata model, indicating measurements that are more resembling to the fluctuations of RSRP and RSRQ. For both scenarios, the coverage hole is modeled by the presence of a building whose dimensions are extensive enough to emulate a region of connection interruption, with a very high path loss [13]. More details about scenario modeling, including simulation parameters and the SINR Radio Environment Maps (REMs) of eNB 2 for both scenarios can be found in [12]. III. T HE P ROPOSED E VALUATION The authors of [12] develop studies to explore the possibilities of how the machine learning models can be integrated with the handover decision making process coordinated by the eNBs, but they did not include most recent gradient boosting machines nor fuzzy systems. Moreover, in this work a statistical analysis is also developed to corroborate the initial results presented. Nonetheless, this work also implements new metric predictions, which are regression machine learning tasks. The prediction of a download time and percentage of completion can be of high value for network architects in order to design optimal handover algorithms.
Fig. 1. The simulation environment.
A handover triggering can be considered unnecessary if a solid estimation indicates that the ongoing download will be completed. On the other hand, a handover shall be anticipated if the estimation indicates that it will not be completed. Thus, similar to [12], this Letter searches for the best eNB in terms of download completion and duration (the classification problem), including state-of-the-art fuzzy systems. The authors of [14] and [15] have indicated that fuzzy strategies are capable of providing equivalent (or even better) performances while consuming less computational resources compared to traditional Artificial Intelligence tools. They had never been applied to the HO problem targeted by this Letter. We also propose regression techniques to estimate the percentage of completed download and the download duration. The methods applied for the HO decision (classification problem) are Autonomous Learning Multimodel System (ALMMo) [15] (which has no tuning parameters, since it extracts all the features and adjustments from data); Self-Organizing Fuzzy Logic Classifier (SOFL) [16] (using Mahalanobis distance and Granularity Level of 2.9); Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Classifier (T2FLS) [17], [18] (being the learning parameter 𝛼 = 0.01, tolerance 𝜖 = 10− 8, 𝛽1 = 0.9 and 𝛽2 = 0.999); Support Vector Machine Classifier (SVM) [7], [19] (with linear kernel and penalty parameter of 10 and 100 for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively); and Multilayer Perceptron Classifier (MLP) [20], [21] (with 6 neurons in hidden layers and solver lbfgs). Regarding the regression problem (estimation of the completed download percentage and the download duration), six methods are compared: Multilayer Perceptron Regressor (MLP) [20], [21] (with 22 and 4 neurons in hidden layers, tanh and logistic activation functions and lbfgs solver for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively); KNN [3], [20] with 4 and 6 neighbors considered for each Scenario; Random Forest (RF) [7], [22] with 94 and 106 trees in the forest, in each case; Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) [23], with 84 and 120 trees in their ensemble; Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) [9], with 174 and 120 estimators each; and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) [8], which used 148 and 139 estimators in the ensemble for each Scenario. There are some considerations on how the ML models could be implemented in a real network. First, it would be
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TABLE II I NITIAL RESULTS FOR S CENARIO 1. Method MLP SVM SOFL T2FLS ALMMo
Accuracy (%) 99.72 99.74 99.11 98.94 99.61
Std. Dev. 0.10 0.08 0.22 0.68 0.11
TABLE IV 𝑇 - TEST RESULTS FOR S CENARIO 1.
Time (s) 5.25 0.54 12.51 5845.78 257.47
TABLE III I NITIAL RESULTS FOR S CENARIO 2. Method
Accuracy (%)
Std. Dev.
Time (s)
MLP SVM SOFL T2FLS ALMMo
86.22 86.34 85.32 72.40 68.06
0.96 0.33 0.71 0.98 1.16
15.94 21.26 14.60 7672.62 357.74
IV. R ESULTS AND D ISCUSSION The selected methods were tested with Python 3.7 and Matlab scripts on an i7-6700HQ processor computer (2.6 GHz). To provide statistical robustness, the k-Fold technique [20] was implemented, with 𝑘 = 5. Additionally, the test was carried 33 times for each method employed. In order to facilitate the reproducibility of the proposal discussed in this Letter, all the codes for training, testing, and the resulting parameters of all algorithms, besides our simulation campaign numerical data are available in [24]. A. Handover Decision (Classification Problem) For the classification of the best eNB for HO, three metrics were used for comparison: the average prediction accuracy (the percentage of correct predictions by the classifier), its standard deviation and processing time. The initial results are presented in Tables II and III, for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. We verify the statistical validity of the data obtained from the proposed solution by using the two-sample 𝑡-test [25], whose 𝑡 parameter is given by 𝐺¯ 1 − 𝐺¯ 2 𝑠𝐺1 2 𝑠𝐺2 2 𝑙 + ℎ
,
𝐺2
𝑝-value
Low. b.
Upp. b.
𝐻
SVM SVM SVM SVM MLP MLP MLP SOFL SOFL ALM
ALM MLP SOFL T2FL ALM SOFL T2FL ALM T2FL T2FL
3.56E-07 0.425 4.66E-19 1.17E-07 2.13E-05 5.12E-19 1.83E-07 9.99E-16 0.1803 3.39E-06
0.0009 -2.70E-4 0.0055 0.0056 0.0007 0.0053 0.0054 -0.0058 -0.0008 0.0042
0.0018 6.34E-4 0.0071 0.0105 0.0017 0.007 0.0103 -0.0041 0.0042 0.0091
1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1
TABLE V 𝑇 - TEST RESULTS FOR S CENARIO 2.
necessary a setup step, in which the network would act without the models’ action because it is necessary to collect/store data and to train models. In our analysis, the RSRP and RSRQ measurements occur in this initial phase, along with the information about download completions and their required times. They are models’ inputs so that they can be trained. This also clarifies how important is the processing time, since the models must be updated as fast as possible, with no harm to the network. After this initial phase, the models would be available to act on the HO decision making at the eNBs. Furthermore, if network alters e.g., an introduction of a new eNB, it would be necessary to retrain the models to account such changes [12].
𝑡 = √︃
𝐺1
(1)
where 𝐺¯ 1 and 𝐺¯ 2 are the means, 𝑠𝐺1 and 𝑠𝐺2 the standard deviation and ℎ and 𝑙 are the size of samples 𝐺 1 and 𝐺 2 , respectively. In addition to the evaluation of 𝑡, it is also important to infer the hypothesis 𝐻0 : 𝐺¯ 1 = 𝐺¯ 2 and 𝐻1 = 𝐺¯ 1 ≠ 𝐺¯ 2 , where the null hypothesis 𝐻0 indicates that both 𝐺 1 and 𝐺 2 methods have obtained the same accuracy, while 𝐻1
𝐺1
𝐺2
𝑝-value
Low. b.
Upp. b.
𝐻
SVM SVM SVM SVM MLP MLP MLP SOFL SOFL ALM
ALM MLP SOFL T2FL ALM SOFL T2FL ALM T2FL T2FL
1.26E-44 0.5019 1.66E-9 2.47E-44 1.86E-60 5.76E-5 7.31E-57 6.14E-55 1.78E-54 2.47E-24
0.1786 -0.0024 0.0075 0.1358 0.1764 0.0049 0.1334 0.1679 0.125 -0.0487
0.1871 0.0048 0.013 0.1431 0.1869 0.0132 0.143 0.1773 0.1334 -0.0381
1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
is the alternative hypothesis which indicates that the accuracy levels are distinct. Given a significance level 𝛼𝑡 , the 𝑝-value, which is calculated from 𝑡-test, represents the lowest possible value to reject 𝐻0 [25]. Values lower than 𝛼𝑡 indicates the rejection of 𝐻0 in (1 − 𝛼𝑡 ) × 100% of the cases (i.e., if 𝑝-value < 𝛼𝑡 , the alternative hypothesis 𝐻1 is valid). Here, we consider 𝛼𝑡 = 0.05. In this stage, the 𝑡-test compares the performance of the adopted strategies for obtaining the greatest accuracy on classifying the best HO target for UE 1. Table IV and V present the evaluations for Scenario 1 and 2, respectively. In both Tables, the 𝑝-value is presented, as well as the confidence interval on the difference of the population means, and the hypothesis inferred (0 for 𝐻0 and 1 for 𝐻1 ). Based on Tables II and IV, the results indicate that all methods perform optimally when there are no shadowing effects to disturb predictions. However, SVM and MLP have the best scores and reduced processing time. The 𝑝-value of the 𝑡-test is greater than 𝛼𝑡 only when comparing SVM to MLP and SOFL to T2FL, which indicates the validity of the null hypothesis (𝐻 = 0). Therefore, the 𝑡-test demonstrates there is no statistical difference between these algorithms in these cases and it confirms that the best models for this classification task are SVM and MLP. Moreover, the fuzzy logic-based ALMMo also demonstrates excellent accuracy, but it fails to deliver it quickly. We credit the longer time required for T2FLS and ALMMo mainly due to the training process. ALMMo extracts features autonomously, without further parameters and form its structure empirically from the observed data. The T2FLS on the other hand requires larger pre-processing calculations that could affect the training phase. Furthermore, looking at the results for Scenario 2 on Tables III and V, in which the shadowing effects are present, some algorithms are still achieving reasonable precision, especially SVM and MLP classifiers, although the accuracy falls considerably (around 13%). Again, they outperform
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TABLE VI R EGRESSION RESULTS FOR S CENARIO 1.
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TABLE VIII 𝑇 - TEST RESULTS FOR REGRESSION IN S CENARIO 1.
Method
𝑀 𝐴𝐸
Std. Dev.
Time (s)
𝐺1
𝐺2
𝑝-value
Low. b.
Upp. b.
𝐻
MLP KNN RF GBM XGBoost LightGBM
0.27163 0.12791 0.11987 0.12452 0.12343 0.11553
0.00800 0.00490 0.00524 0.00727 0.00714 0.00317
21.85 1.24 49.34 32.98 25.67 14.81
XGB XGB XGB XGB XGB Light Light Light Light GBM GBM GBM MLP MLP RF
Light GBM MLP RF KNN GBM MLP RF KNN MLP RF KNN RF KNN KNN
6.85E-7 0.5785 8.11E-40 0.0493 0.0049 1.88E-7 2.16E-34 9.43E-6 5.89E-17 2.16E-40 0.0128 0.0347 1.30E-36 8.43E-36 4.92E-8
0.0052 -0.0047 -0.1530 -0.0014 -0.0076 -0.0118 0.1605 0.0068 -0.0143 -0.1520 0.0009 -0.0067 0.1439 0.1364 0.0051
0.0106 0.0027 -0.1406 0.0063 -0.0014 -0.0061 0.1489 -0.0029 -0.0104 -0.1395 0.0073 -0.0002 0.1558 0.1486 0.0100
1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TABLE VII R EGRESSION RESULTS FOR S CENARIO 2. Method
𝑀 𝐴𝐸
Std. Dev.
Time (s)
MLP KNN RF GBM XGBoost LightGBM
6.32415 6.00046 5.99726 6.19593 5.88485 5.08845
0.07108 0.07525 0.05373 0.07841 0.10150 0.04832
8.98 1.68 53.05 34.15 17.53 13.76
the others on the comparison, and they do not present relevant differences to each other, confirmed by the 𝑡-test. However, in this case, it is important to accentuate that fuzzy rule-based SOFL classifier was capable of reaching competitive accuracy while requiring the shortest processing time, which is meaningful to the fuzzy logic context. B. Download Time Estimation (Regression Problem) For regression, each Scenario demanded a different regression variable. For the first one, the prediction was made for the download duration, since the majority of the downloads are able to be completed within simulation time. However, for the second one, the prediction was made for the percentage of completed download, seeing that it is a more challenging scenario and the majority of downloads could not be completed at the end of 100 s of simulation. Therefore, the analyzed metrics are the mean absolute error (𝑀 𝐴𝐸) between the actual download time and the predicted value, the standard deviation, and processing time. The results are presented in Tables VI and VII below, for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. We notice on Table VI that all methods presented a relatively low 𝑀 𝐴𝐸, being LightGBM the most accurate with 𝑀 𝐴𝐸 = 0.11553; and MLP being the least accurate with 𝑀 𝐴𝐸 = 0.27163. In Table VII, due to the presence of shadowing, the values of mean absolute error are greater, as expected. Again, the most precise was LightGBM and the least precise was MLP. Regarding execution time, KNN obtained the best result, possibly explained by the database not being so numerous and the hyperparameter 𝐾 being considerably small, reducing the computational cost. The second lowest time was presented by LightGBM, which has processing speed as an advantage. Differently, Random Forest was the slowest, probably due to the number of trees created during training. The two-sample 𝑡-test [25] is applied once again, now seeking statistical differences between regression methods 𝐺 1 and 𝐺 2 . Hence, Tables VIII and IX are obtained for the first and second Scenarios, respectively. Analyzing Tables VIII and IX, the hypothesis that XGBoost and GBM are equivalents is rejected in Scenario 1. The same applies to RF and KNN in Scenario 2. Therefore, it is clear that LightGBM is the one that best fits into the database
TABLE IX 𝑇 - TEST RESULTS FOR REGRESSION IN S CENARIO 2. 𝐺1
𝐺2
𝑝-value
Low. b.
Upp. b.
𝐻
XGB XGB XGB XGB XGB Light Light Light Light GBM GBM GBM MLP MLP RF
Light GBM MLP RF KNN GBM MLP RF KNN MLP RF KNN RF KNN KNN
1.99E-37 3.00E-20 1.13E-27 1.19E-6 2.71E-6 1.95E-53 3.94E-60 3.51E-57 1.42E-50 3.50E-9 3.95E-16 5.43E-15 3.89E-28 2.75E-26 0.9867
0.7565 -0.3563 -0.4830 -0.1576 -0.1602 -1.1401 -1.2661 -0.9399 -0.9437 -0.1656 0.1602 0.1571 0.2904 0.2871 -0.0344
0.8363 -0.2658 -0.3956 -0.0731 -0.0710 -1.0748 -1.2053 -0.8836 -0.8803 -0.0908 0.2314 0.2338 0.3576 0.3602 -0.0350
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
obtained from this simulation campaigns, also presenting a diminished execution time, due to the fact that it has the smallest value for 𝑀 𝐴𝐸 and the 𝑡-test confirms there is no other model with equivalent performance. It is worth to mention that KNN offers an acceptable performance while requiring an extremely low execution time, which suggests its use for similar applications with real-time regressions. V. C ONCLUSIONS Since 3GPP HO management relies basically on power level comparisons, several inefficiencies arise during such procedures. In this context, we presented a user-level simulation-based performance analysis of algorithms for classification and regression applications in 3GPP networks. The classification aims to predict the best HO target, whereas the regression estimates the download time and its completed percentage. Classical computational intelligence approaches, such as KNN, MLP, SVM and also recent fuzzy logic systems and latter gradient boosting machines were implemented. The results indicate a valuable performance even in adverse propagation conditions while requiring short processing time. For classification, SVM and MLP have the best performance, although the fuzzy system SOFL has similar accuracy with lower processing time. Regarding the regression applications, LightGBM is certainly the one that best adapts to these work conditions and presents minor mean absolute error and processing time. However, it is worth to mention that KNN offers extremely low time values.
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