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The Operational Value of Spatial Dependence in Renewable Forecast Scenarios for Single-Period Economic Dispatch: A Controlled Ablation Study
Renewable forecasts are evaluated by statistical skill (e.g., CRPS), but grid operators pay for realized dispatch cost. We diagnose what drives dispatch value in a single-period newsvendor-style economic dispatch using real public data from two European transmission systems (CWE, DE-4TSO). Spatial c
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