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Persistent memory and tail-risk amplification in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability: a Volterra integral framework calibrated with CMIP6
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) carries multi-decadal memory that ensemble-mean risk projections do not capture. We quantify this memory and its consequences for tail risk with a Volterra integral framework applied to ensemble-mean-subtracted variability in 14 CMIP6 models (18
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