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Two base rates, two weights: base-rate neglect has a second axis

Shavit, Adam Y.
arXiv (All) · Papers
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applicationsmethodologyneurons-and-cognition
Base-rate neglect is usually treated as one mistake: giving the prior too little weight. Turning the co-occurrences you see into a useful judgment, though, means correcting for two base rates, not one. The first is the familiar prior, how common the outcome is. The second is how common the cue itsel
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