arXiv (OAI Expanded)
open access
The Anatomy of a Blockchain Prediction Market: Polymarket in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Using the complete on-chain settlement ledger, we study Polymarket's 2024 U.S. presidential election markets, focusing on the Trump YES price widely quoted as a forecast of the race. Because the platform mints and burns outcome shares inside ordinary trades, naive aggregation overstates turnover. We
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