Behavioral Cybernetics: Financial and Civilization Risk Theory

This paper proposes Behavioral Cybernetics: Finance and Civilization Risk Theory, systematically analyzing the structural mechanisms of modern civilization risks. It aims to overcome the limitations of single-system or single-discipline approaches by situating financial, technological, political, and ecological subsystems within a multi-level self-organizing framework of civilization as a whole. The study demonstrates that the high-gain structure and positive-feedback-dominated mechanisms of modern civilization allow local disturbances to accumulate rapidly across layers and domains, creating systemic risks. The paper first reviews the historical construction of rationality assumptions and theoretical breakthroughs in behavioral biases, proposing a scientific-philosophical perspective that extends the analysis from financial risk to civilization risk. It then introduces the fundamentals of cybernetics and complex systems, explaining how positive and negative feedback, criticality, and self-organization affect the stability of civilization. A multi-level structural model of civilization is established, revealing how risks originate and propagate across behavioral, economic, institutional, and ideological layers. Through analysis of the financial system, the mechanisms of high-gain amplification within civilization are demonstrated, followed by a staged model of civilization instability. From an ontological perspective, the paper reflects on the structural dilemmas of anthropocentrism, emphasizing the limitless nature of human desire, the finite nature of institutions, and the compressive effects of technological acceleration on system stability. At the institutional and governance level, a “stability-first principle” is proposed, emphasizing multi-level negative feedback design, automated stabilization mechanisms, and strategies to suppress behavioral amplification coefficients to achieve long-term robust operation of civilization systems. The theoretical contribution of this research lies in extending behavioral cybernetics from financial risk to civilization system risk, providing a cross-disciplinary, multi-level analytical framework. Methodologically, it integrates scientific analysis with philosophical-ontological reflection, offering actionable paths for studying civilization risk and designing institutions. Practically, it guides the optimization of future civilization structures, implementing the stability-first principle to achieve sustainable development.