Two Futures of AI Regulation under the Trump Administration

This article examines potential regulatory pathways for AI in the United States following the Trump administration's 2025 revocation of the Biden-era AI Executive Order. We outline two competing governance scenarios: decentralized state-level regulation (with minimal federal oversight) and centralized federal dominance (through legislative pre-emption). We critically evaluate each model's policy implications, constitutional challenges, and practical trade-offs, particularly regarding innovation and state autonomy. We argue that AI's technological characteristics and context-dependent nature complicate achieving regulatory coherence amid competing federal and state interests. As a result, even under the Trump administration's broader deregulatory agenda, targeted federal intervention may remain necessary.