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Modelling Robust Lending Decisions under Climate Scenario Ambiguity: A Minimax-Regret Framework with NGFS Short-Term Scenarios
This paper develops a public-data framework for evaluating incremental bank lending when plausible climate scenarios imply different sector credit outcomes but defensible scenario probabilities are unavailable. The calibration combines 2025 Shared National Credit industry commitments, January 2026 U
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