Predicted Prognosis in Heart Failure

The purpose of the project is to conduct a physician-initiated Canadian multicentre observational research study that compares physician judgement and model prediction to estimate one-year survival in ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients and evaluate the use of resources according to physician intuitive risk. This study will evaluate the accuracy and impact of physician intuition and predictive models in the assessment of prognosis in ambulatory HF patients by: comparing 1-year physician predicted survival and 1-year observed survival to 1-year model predicted survival; evaluating whether model performance could be enhanced by incorporating physician intuition; evaluating the accuracy of physician intuition according to level of confidence in physician intuition (very low, low, moderate, high or very high); evaluating whether physician expertise impacts accuracy of physician intuition; and evaluating patient management and use of resources according to physician estimated survival.