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When Marginal Coverage Transfers and the Economics Do Not: A Pre-Registered Study of Conformal Interval Widths as Position-Sizing Scales
We size portfolio positions from conformal prediction intervals, reading the interval half-width as the scale in a capped fractional-Kelly rule (Conformal Kelly), and evaluate the rule under a pre-registered protocol. The development record is an autonomous LLM-agent search over roughly 200 configur
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