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Does the AI Productivity Dividend Diminish? Does the AI Productivity Dividend Diminish? A Validated Framework for Identifying the Shape of Firm-Level Returns to Artificial Intelligence
Forecasts of the productivity dividend from artificial intelligence (AI) differ by an order of magnitude, partly because they extrapolate average gains observed among early, highly exposed adopters. Whether those gains scale linearly, flatten, or are competed away is an empirical question about the
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