The Economic Impact of Low- and High-Frequency Temperature Changes

[2505.08950] The Economic Impact of Low- and High-Frequency Temperature Changes Skip to main content Search Submit Donate Log in Search arXiv Press Enter to search · Advanced search Economics > General Economics arXiv:2505.08950 (econ) [Submitted on 13 May 2025 ( v1 ), last revised 9 Apr 2026 (this version, v3)] Title: The Economic Impact of Low- and High-Frequency Temperature Changes Authors: Nikolay Gospodinov , Ignacio Lopez Gaffney , Serena Ng View a PDF of the paper titled The Economic Impact of Low- and High-Frequency Temperature Changes, by Nikolay Gospodinov and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract: Variations in the low- and high-frequency components of temperature may have distinct impacts on economic outcomes. Parametric and non-parametric estimates from three panels of data all find significant heterogeneity in the relative importance of the two components, but there is clear evidence in each panel of a common, slowly evolving low-frequency factor that is highly correlated with the low-frequency factor of economic activity. In regressions that quantify the output effects of the components, we find that one-way clustered standard errors often lead to size distortions, and that an additive fixed effect specification does not adequately control for common time effects. Using bootstrap inference to assess estimates from our preferred interactive fixed effect specification, we only find a marginally significant effect of the high-frequency component on growth in the U.S. panel. However, the effect of the low-frequency component is significant in the European and International panels, suggesting that the increase in the low-frequency temperature component over the post-1980 period is associated with a reduction in economic growth of approximately 1.3 percentage points. The findings are corroborated by time series estimation using data at the unit and national levels. Subjects: General Economics (econ.GN) Cite as: arXiv:2505.08950 [econ.GN] (or arXiv:2505.08950v3 [econ.GN] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2505.08950 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Serena Ng [ view email ] [v1] Tue, 13 May 2025 20:28:12 UTC (1,213 KB) [v2] Tue, 9 Dec 2025 13:28:44 UTC (1,288 KB) [v3] Thu, 9 Apr 2026 20:51:08 UTC (1,365 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled The Economic Impact of Low- and High-Frequency Temperature Changes, by Nikolay Gospodinov and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: econ.GN < prev | next > new | recent | 2025-05 Change to browse by: econ q-fin q-fin.EC References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Loading... BibTeX formatted citation × loading... Data provided by: Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer ( What is the Explorer? ) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers ( What is Connected Papers? ) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps ( What is Litmaps? ) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations ( What are Smart Citations? ) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv ( What is alphaXiv? ) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers ( What is CatalyzeX? ) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub ( What is DagsHub? ) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub ( What is GotitPub? ) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face ( What is Huggingface? ) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast ( What is ScienceCast? ) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate ( What is Replicate? ) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces ( What is Spaces? ) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI ( What is TXYZ.AI? ) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower ( What are Influence Flowers? ) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender ( What is CORE? ) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs . Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax ( What is MathJax? ) We gratefully acknowledge support from our major funders , member institutions , , and all contributors. About · Help · Contact · Subscribe · Copyright · Privacy · Accessibility · Operational Status (opens in new tab) Major funding support from

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