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Ranked Right, Sized Wrong: Ensemble Spread Fails Silently at Streamflow Extremes

Gallant, Justin et al.
arXiv (All) · Papers
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geophysics
Deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory networks, are increasingly used for operational streamflow forecasting, with ensemble spread providing a signal of predictive uncertainty. As climate change increases the frequency of hydroclimatic extremes, these models will increasingly ope
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