Smart Analysis and Decision-Making for Emerging Infectious Diseases

Emerging infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, mpox, and dengue fever, are characterized by rapid transmission, wide impact, and high uncertainty, posing ongoing threats to global public health. While China achieved significant success in COVID-19 control, the response also revealed key challenges, including fragmented information, delayed risk perception, experience-dependent assessment, and inefficiencies in complex decision-making. This study aims to establish a smart technology system covering the full chain of "risk perception-situational assessment-intelligent decision-making-comprehensive evaluation." Specific objectives include: Constructing a global disease burden database and knowledge graph for emerging infectious diseases; Developing early risk assessment models covering the full transmission spectrum (cross-species, imported, and local outbreak); Building an AI-driven collective intelligence decision-support tool for epidemic control; Developing precise intervention frameworks and comprehensive evaluation indicators for key populations (e.g., elderly, students); Integrating the above technologies into a multi-agent toolkit and evaluating its effectiveness through a cluster randomized controlled trial involving at least 36 district/county-level CDC clusters across five provinces/municipalities (Guangdong, Zhejiang, Hubei, Sichuan, and Shanghai). Three eligible CDC staff members will be enrolled from each participating cluster, including one CDC director or relevant leader responsible for infectious disease prevention and control and two professional staff members engaged in acute infectious disease surveillance, risk assessment, decision-making, or emergency response. Accordingly, at least 108 participants will be enrolled, and the final anticipated enrollment will be determined by the total number of participating clusters. The intervention group will use the smart toolkit alongside routine practices, while the control group will follow routine pract