Revealed and Concealed Repression: Theory and Measurement

[2507.16997] Revealed and Concealed Repression: Theory and Measurement Skip to main content Search Submit Donate Log in Search arXiv Press Enter to search · Advanced search Economics > Theoretical Economics arXiv:2507.16997 (econ) [Submitted on 22 Jul 2025 ( v1 ), last revised 10 Apr 2026 (this version, v2)] Title: Revealed and Concealed Repression: Theory and Measurement Authors: Maria Titova , Nathan Canen , Emily Hencken Ritter , Mehdi Shadmehr View a PDF of the paper titled Revealed and Concealed Repression: Theory and Measurement, by Maria Titova and Nathan Canen and Emily Hencken Ritter and Mehdi Shadmehr View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract: Regimes routinely conceal acts of repression. We show that observed repression may be negatively correlated with total repression, consisting of both revealed and concealed acts. This distortion can generate perverse effects for policy interventions designed to reduce repression and complicates inference about the causes and consequences of repression. We develop a model in which regimes choose whether to conceal repression and activists decide whether to challenge the regime. We identify two measurement problems - one due to concealment and one to deterrence. We construct indices of repression that account for these problems and show how these indices can be expressed in terms of observable variables by leveraging equilibrium relationships. We then propose an empirical strategy to estimate these indices. As a proof of concept, we apply this approach to Russia, estimating repression indices at a monthly frequency for 2020-2025. Subjects: Theoretical Economics (econ.TH) Cite as: arXiv:2507.16997 [econ.TH] (or arXiv:2507.16997v2 [econ.TH] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.16997 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Maria Titova [ view email ] [v1] Tue, 22 Jul 2025 20:10:52 UTC (175 KB) [v2] Fri, 10 Apr 2026 17:47:13 UTC (696 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Revealed and Concealed Repression: Theory and Measurement, by Maria Titova and Nathan Canen and Emily Hencken Ritter and Mehdi Shadmehr View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: econ.TH < prev | next > new | recent | 2025-07 Change to browse by: econ References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Loading... BibTeX formatted citation × loading... Data provided by: Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer ( What is the Explorer? ) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers ( What is Connected Papers? ) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps ( What is Litmaps? ) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations ( What are Smart Citations? ) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv ( What is alphaXiv? ) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers ( What is CatalyzeX? ) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub ( What is DagsHub? ) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub ( What is GotitPub? ) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face ( What is Huggingface? ) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast ( What is ScienceCast? ) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate ( What is Replicate? ) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces ( What is Spaces? ) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI ( What is TXYZ.AI? ) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower ( What are Influence Flowers? ) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender ( What is CORE? ) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs . Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax ( What is MathJax? ) We gratefully acknowledge support from our major funders , member institutions , , and all contributors. About · Help · Contact · Subscribe · Copyright · Privacy · Accessibility · Operational Status (opens in new tab) Major funding support from

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