Development and Validation of a Simple-to-use Nomogram for Predicting In-hospital Mortality in Acute Heart Failure Patients Undergoing Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy

Acute heart failure (AHF) is one of the most common causes of hospitalization and life-threatening medical condition around worldwide. The AHF patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) usually be critically ill with multiorgan failure, in which the kidneys are most frequently involved. The goals of treatment of AHF in ICU were to improve hemodynamic stability and organ perfusion, alleviate symptoms, and limit cardiac and renal damage, which can be achieved by continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), a continuous extracorporeal blood purification. CRRT can mimic urine output to slowly and continuously remove patient's plasma water, providing accurate volume control and hemodynamic stability. Acute Heart Failure Global Survey of Standard Treatment (ALARM-HF) study showed that hospital mortality of AHF patients was about 17.8% in the intensive care unit (ICU). But the patients undergoing CRRT, the mortality up to 45%-62.1%. For this reason, an early model or score to a screening of AHF patients undergoing CRRT who at high mortality risk is crucial, which can help clinicians to rapidly intervene and ameliorate disease outcomes. The most popular tools, especially that can predict mortality for critically ill patients, are the Acute Physiology Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring systems, and Simplified Acute Physiologic Score II (SAPS II). But variables in these scoring systems are complex, which was not convenient to assess at any time. Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) , much more concise than APACHE II and SAPS II, not only can be used for early warning of the onset of AHF in patients with the risk of heart failure but also has a positive correlation with mortality in these patients. However, up to our knowledge, there was no scores or model to predict the in-hospital mortality of AHF patient undergoing CRRT. Based on the acute heart failure unit (AHFU) of Qilu Hospital and the medical information mart for intensive care III