The Earth Optimization Prize

The Earth Optimization Prize | Zenodo Skip to main Communities My dashboard Log in Sign up Zenodo is currently experiencing slowness and intermittent outages due to heavy automated traffic from bots and AI crawlers. We are aware of the problem, and our team is focused on stabilizing the service. Thank you for your patience. Published May 7, 2026 | Version 1.0 Working paper Open The Earth Optimization Prize Authors/Creators Mike P. Sinn 1 Show affiliations 1.

International Campaign to End War and Disease Description Website: https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html Abstract: Humanity spends 604 (95% CI: 453-894)x more on wars than testing which medicines work. The Earth Optimization Prize pays whoever fixes that. Two target numbers: healthy life years and median income. Hit them by 2040 and the pool goes to the people who recruited voters for the 1% Treaty. Miss them and depositors split the pool pro rata (still beats a retirement account). The mechanism: deposit, recruit, and let compound interest do the rest. Summary: Reward humanity for raising healthy life years and median income within 15 years. PRIZE keeps depositors on the failure branch, VOTE rewards recruiters on the success branch, and Earth Optimization Protocol v1 is only the current instruction manual for trying to win. Notes Category: Academic Paper, Mechanism Design, Prize Theory, Public Policy | Genre: Political Science, Economics, Mechanism Design, Prize Theory | Target Audience: Researchers, Policy Makers, Mechanism Designers, Philanthropists, Economists Files least-bad-idea-prize.pdf Files (291.9 kB) Name Size Download all least-bad-idea-prize.pdf md5:16e8f0e155af605281cb883f54f768e1 291.9 kB Preview Download Additional details Related works Cites 10.5281/zenodo.18161560 (DOI) 10.5281/zenodo.20076511 (DOI) 10.1371/journal.pone.0127242 (DOI) 10.5281/zenodo.18356215 (DOI) 10.5281/zenodo.18243914 (DOI) 10.5281/zenodo.18203375 (DOI) 10.5281/zenodo.19080244 (DOI) 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30925-9 (DOI) 10.5281/zenodo.19076850 (DOI) 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2010.00272.x (DOI) 10.5281/zenodo.18203221 (DOI) 10.5281/zenodo.18356231 (DOI) 10.1257/pandp.20201017 (DOI) 10.1093/inthealth/ihz003 (DOI) 10.5281/zenodo.18356213 (DOI) 10.5281/zenodo.18603840 (DOI) 10.1016/j.drudis.2019.01.009 (DOI) 10.1023/A:1004967519792 (DOI) Is supplemented by Software documentation: https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/earth-optimization-prize.html (URL) Software: https://github.com/wishonia/earth-optimization-protocol (URL) References Sinn, Mike P. (2025). The 1\% Treaty: Harnessing Greed to Eradicate Disease. doi:10.5281/zenodo.18161560 Sinn, Mike P. (2025). The 1\% Treaty. doi:10.5281/zenodo.20076511 {Harvard Kennedy School} (2020). 3.5\% participation tipping point. Harvard Kennedy School. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/carr/publications/35-rule-how-small-minority-can-change-world GAO (2025). 95\% of diseases have 0 FDA-approved treatments. GAO. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-106774 ACLED (2024). Active combat deaths annually. ACLED: Global Conflict Surged 2024. https://acleddata.com/2024/12/12/data-shows-global-conflict-surged-in-2024-the-washington-post/ NIH (2015). Antidepressant clinical trial exclusion rates. Zimmerman et al.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26276679/ {Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO)} (2021). BIO Clinical Development Success Rates 2011-2020. Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO). https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf {U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics} (2024). CPI Inflation Calculator. https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm CBO (2024). The 2024 Long-Term Budget Outlook. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60039 {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention} (2024). US Life Expectancy 2023. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm {National Center for Health Statistics} (2011). Drug Poisoning Deaths in the United States, 1980--2008. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db81.htm {National Center for Health Statistics} (2025). Drug Overdose Deaths in the United States, 2003--2023. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db522.htm {US Census Bureau} (2024). US Median Household Income 2023. https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-282.html {Cato Institute} (). Chance of dying from terrorism statistic. Cato Institute: Terrorism and Immigration Risk Analysis. https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/terrorism-immigration-risk-analysis {CDC MMWR} (1994). Childhood vaccination economic benefits. CDC MMWR. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7331a2.htm CDC (2017). Childhood Vaccination (US) ROI. CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6316a4.htm {Integrated Benefits Institute} (2024). Chronic illness workforce productivity loss. Integrated Benefits Institute 2024. https://www.ibiweb.org/resources/chronic-conditions-in-the-us-workforce-prevalence-trends-and-productivity-impacts {UN News} (2014). Clean Water \& Sanitation (LMICs) ROI. UN News. https://news.un.org/en/story/2014/11/484032 Williams, Rebecca J and Tse, Tony and DiPiazza, Katelyn and Zarin, Deborah A (2015). Terminated Trials in the ClinicalTrials.gov Results Database: Evaluation of Availability of Primary Outcome Data and Reasons for Termination. PLOS One, 10, e0127242. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0127242 {ACS CAN} (). Clinical trial patient participation rate. ACS CAN: Barriers to Clinical Trial Enrollment. https://www.fightcancer.org/policy-resources/barriers-patient-enrollment-therapeutic-clinical-trials-cancer PMC (2023). Only ~12\% of human interactome targeted. PMC. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10749231/ {ClinicalTrials.gov API v2 direct analysis} (). ClinicalTrials.gov cumulative enrollment data (2025). Direct analysis via ClinicalTrials.gov API v2. https://clinicaltrials.gov/data-api/api {Convention on Cluster Munitions} (). Convention on Cluster Munitions (2008) - Oslo Process. Convention on Cluster Munitions. https://www.clusterconvention.org/oslo-process/ {Correlates of War Project} (2017). National Material Capabilities (NMC) Dataset. https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/national-material-capabilities/ Sinn, Mike P. (2025). The Price of Political Change: A Cost-Benefit Framework for Policy Incentivization. doi:10.5281/zenodo.18356215 Crawford, Neta C. and Lutz, Catherine (2023). Blood and Treasure: United States Budgetary Costs and Human Costs of 20 Years of War. https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/ Daggett, Stephen (2010). Costs of Major U.S. Wars. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/RS22926.pdf {UBS} (2023). Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2023. Credit Suisse/UBS. https://www.ubs.com/global/en/family-office-uhnw/reports/global-wealth-report-2023.html {Cybersecurity Ventures} (2016). Cybercrime economy projected to reach \$10.5 trillion. Cybersecurity Ventures: \$10.5T Cybercrime. https://cybersecurityventures.com/hackerpocalypse-cybercrime-report-2016/ GiveWell (). Cost per DALY for Deworming Programs. GiveWell: Cost-Effectiveness in $/DALY for Deworming. https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming/cost-effectiveness Sinn, Mike P. (2025). Ubiquitous Pragmatic Trial Impact Analysis: How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents. doi:10.5281/zenodo.18243914 Sinn, Mike P. (2025). The Continuous Evidence Generation Protocol: Two-Stage Validation (RWE → Pragmatic Trials). doi:10.5281/zenodo.18203375 WHO (2019). Annual global economic burden of Alzheimer's and other dementias. WHO: Dementia Fact Sheet. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dementia {JAMA Oncology} (2020). Annual global economic burden of cancer. JAMA Oncology: Global Cost 2020-2050. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaoncology/fullarticle/2801798 {Diabetes Care} (). Annual global economic burden of diabetes. Diabetes Care: Global Economic Burden. https://diabetesjournals.org/care/article/41/5/963/36522/Global-Economic-Burden-of-Diabetes-in-Adults Cook, Christopher and Cole, Graham and Asaria, Perviz and Jabbour, Richard and Francis, Darrel P. (2014). Annual global economic burden of heart disease. International Journal of Cardiology. https://www.internationaljournalofcardiology.com/article/S0167-5273(13)02238-9/abstract {Calculated from IHME Global Burden of Disease (2.55B DALYs) and global GDP per capita valuation} (). \$109 trillion annual global disease burden. ScienceDaily (2015). Global prevalence of chronic disease. ScienceDaily: GBD 2015 Study. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150608081753.htm {Calculated from Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024)} (2024). Diseases Getting First Effective Treatment Each Year. Calculated from Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024). https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1 SIPRI (2016). 36:1 disparity ratio of spending on weapons over cures. SIPRI: Military Spending. https://www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2016/opportunity-cost-world-military-spending {U.S. Department of Justice} (2025). The False Claims Act. https://www.justice.gov/civil/false-claims-act DOT (2024). DOT Value of Statistical Life (\$13.6M). DOT: VSL Guidance 2024. https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis {U.S. Department of Transportation} (2024). Departmental Guidance on Valuation of a Statistical Life in Economic Analysis. https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis {Tufts CSDD} (). Cost of drug development. {Nature Medicine} (2024). Drug Repurposing Rate (~30\%). Nature Medicine. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03233-x {Nature Reviews Drug Discovery} (2016). Drug trial success rate from Phase I to approval. Nature Reviews Drug Discovery: Clinical Success Rates. https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2016.136 {Drug Policy Alliance} (2021). The Drug War by the Numbers. https://drugpolicy.org/drug-war-stats/ Sinn, Mike P. (2025). Earth Optimization Prize Protocol: Technical Specification. doi:10.5281/zenodo.19080244 Sinn, Mike P. (2025). Earth Optimization Protocol: Technical Specification. https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/earth-optimization-prize-protocol.html EPI (). Education investment economic multiplier (2.1). EPI: Public Investments Outside Core Infrastructure. https://www.epi.org/publication/bp348-public-investments-outside-core-infrastructure/ {Costs of War Project, Brown University Watson Institute} (). Environmental cost of war (\$100B annually). Brown Watson Costs of War: Environmental Cost. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment {Environmental Working Group} (2024). US Farm Subsidy Database and Analysis. Environmental Working Group. https://farm.ewg.org/ FDA (). FDA-approved prescription drug products (20,000+). FDA. https://www.fda.gov/media/143704/download FDA (). FDA GRAS List Count (~570-700). FDA. https://www.fda.gov/food/generally-recognized-safe-gras/gras-notice-inventory {Federal Election Commission} (2023). Statistical Summary of 24-Month Campaign Activity of the 2023-2024 Election Cycle. https://www.fec.gov/updates/statistical-summary-of-24-month-campaign-activity-of-the-2023-2024-election-cycle/ {Forbes} (2024). Forbes World's Billionaires List 2024. https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/ Friedman, Milton and Friedman, Rose (1980). Free to Choose: A Personal Statement. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. {GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators} (2020). Global Burden of Disease Study 2019: Disability Weights. The Lancet, 396, 1204--1222. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30925-9 Sinn, Mike P. (2025). Choose Your Own Earth: A World Without the Political Dysfunction Tax, or Terminal Parasitic Load in 15 Years. doi:10.5281/zenodo.19076850 Gelman, Andrew and Silver, Nate and Edlin, Aaron (2012). What Is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?. Economic Inquiry, 50, 321--326. doi:10.1111/j.1465-7295.2010.00272.x GiveWell (). GiveWell Cost per Life Saved for Top Charities (2024). GiveWell: Top Charities. https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities {Research and Markets} (2024). Global clinical trials market 2024. Research and Markets. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/19/2866012/0/en/Global-Clinical-Trials-Market-Research-Report-2024-An-83-16-Billion-Market-by-2030-AI-Machine-Learning-and-Blockchain-will-Transform-the-Clinical-Trials-Landscape.html {Component country budgets} (). Global government medical research spending (\$67.5B, 2023–2024). See component country budgets: NIH Budget. https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/budget {Applied Clinical Trials} (). Global government spending on interventional clinical trials: ~\$3-6 billion/year. Applied Clinical Trials. https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market {United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division} (2024). World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. https://population.un.org/wpp SIPRI (2025). Global military spending (\$2.72T, 2024). SIPRI. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024 {C\&EN} (2025). Annual number of new drugs approved globally: ~50. C\&EN. https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2 ICAN (2024). Global nuclear weapon maintenance cost: \$100 billion/year. ICAN: Global Spending \$100B 2024. https://www.icanw.org/global_spending_on_nuclear_weapons_topped_100_billion_in_2024 {Industry reports: IQVIA} (). Global pharmaceutical R\&D spending. UN (2022). Global population reaches 8 billion. UN: World Population 8 Billion Nov 15 2022. https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022 {National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)} (2022). Global Terrorism Database (GTD). https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/ {IQVIA Report} (). Global trial capacity. IQVIA Report: Clinical Trial Subjects Number Drops Due to Decline in COVID-19 Enrollment. https://gmdpacademy.org/news/iqvia-report-clinical-trial-subjects-number-drops-due-to-decline-in-covid-19-enrollment/ {Our World in Data} (2024). Terror attack deaths (8,300 annually). Our World in Data: Terrorism. https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism PMC (2022). Healthcare investment economic multiplier (1.8). PMC: California Universal Health Care. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5954824/ Hsieh, Chang-Tai and Moretti, Enrico (2019). Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388 NHGRI (2003). Human Genome Project and CRISPR Discovery. NHGRI. https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp Sinn, Mike P. (2025). Incentive Alignment Bonds: Making Public Goods Financially and Politically Profitable. doi:10.5281/zenodo.18203221 ICRC (1997). International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL) - Ottawa Treaty (1997). ICRC. https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/other/57jpjn.htm WHO (2019). ICD-10 Code Count (~14,000). WHO. https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en {Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)} (2024). IHME Global Burden of Disease 2021 (2.88B DALYs, 1.13B YLD). Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/ {International Monetary Fund} (2023). IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion {International Monetary Fund} (2024). IMF Singapore Government Spending Data. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SGP Sinn, Mike P. (2025). Private Industry Clinical Trial Spending Estimate. https://cost-of-change.warondisease.org {Applied Clinical Trials} (). Industry vs. Government Clinical Trial Spending Split (90/10). Applied Clinical Trials. https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market {World Bank} (2022). Infrastructure investment economic multiplier (1.6). World Bank: Infrastructure Investment as Stimulus. https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/ppps/effectiveness-infrastructure-investment-fiscal-stimulus-what-weve-learned {International IDEA} (2026). International IDEA Voter Turnout Database world export. https://www.idea.int/data-tools/export?type=region_only&themeId=293&world=all&loc=home Sinn, Mike P. (2025). The Invisible Graveyard: Quantifying the Mortality Cost of FDA Efficacy Lag. doi:10.5281/zenodo.18356231 {IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science} (2024). The Global Use of Medicines 2024: Outlook to 2028. IQVIA Institute Report. https://www.iqvia.com/insights/the-iqvia-institute/reports-and-publications/reports/the-global-use-of-medicines-2024-outlook-to-2028 Kremer, Michael and Levin, Jonathan and Snyder, Christopher M. (2020). Advance Market Commitments: Insights from Theory and Experience. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110, 269--273. doi:10.1257/pandp.20201017 Lichtenberg, Frank R. (2019). How Many Life-Years Have New Drugs Saved? A Three-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis of 66 Diseases in 27 Countries, 2000-2013. International Health, 11, 403--416. doi:10.1093/inthealth/ihz003 PMC (2012). Contribution of smoking reduction to life expectancy gains. PMC: Benefits Smoking Cessation Longevity. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447499/ {Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV} (2019). US life expectancy growth 1880-1960: 3.82 years per decade. https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv {Responsible Statecraft} (2021). Lobbying ROI Calculation (\$1,813 per \$1). Responsible Statecraft. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/09/02/top-defense-firms-see-2t-return-on-1b-investment-in-afghan-war/ OpenSecrets (2024). Lobbying Spend (Defense). OpenSecrets. https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/lobbying?ind=D OpenSecrets (). Lobbyist statistics for Washington D.C.. OpenSecrets: Lobbying in US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobbying_in_the_United_States Wikipedia (). Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) - Maximum Human Life Extension Potential. Wikipedia: Longevity Escape Velocity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity {Think by Numbers} (2021). Lost human capital due to war (\$270B annually). Think by Numbers. https://thinkbynumbers.org/military/war/the-economic-case-for-peace-a-comprehensive-financial-analysis/ Bolt, Jutta and van Zanden, Jan Luiten (2020). Maddison Project Database 2020. https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020 {MDPI Vaccines} (2024). Measles Vaccination ROI. MDPI Vaccines. https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/11/1210 ScienceDaily (2020). Medical research lives saved annually (4.2 million). ScienceDaily: Physical Activity Prevents 4M Deaths. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200617194510.htm {World Health Organization} (2022). Mental health global burden. World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/news/item/28-09-2001-the-world-health-report-2001-mental-disorders-affect-one-in-four-people Mercatus (). Military spending economic multiplier (0.6). Mercatus: Defense Spending and Economy. https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/defense-spending-and-economy {U.S. Department of Defense} (2024). 5.56mm NATO Ammunition Bulk Procurement Pricing. https://www.bulkcheapammo.com/rifle-ammo/556-ammo Pike, John (2011). U.S. Forces Fire 250,000 Rounds for Every Insurgent Killed. https://jonathanturley.org/2011/01/10/gao-u-s-has-fired-250000-rounds-for-every-insurgent-killed/ NIH (2024). NIH Budget (FY 2025). NIH. https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/organization/budget {Bentley et al.} (2023). NIH spending on clinical trials: ~3.3\%. Bentley et al.. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10349341/ {Estimated from major foundation budgets and activities} (). Nonprofit clinical trial funding estimate. {Xia et al., Nature Food} (2022). Nuclear Winter Famine. Xia et al.. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0 {Columbia/NBER} (2012). Odds of a single vote being decisive in a U.S. presidential election. Columbia/NBER: What Is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?. https://sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf {OECD} (2024). OECD Government Spending as Percentage of GDP. https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm {OECD} (2024). OECD Median Household Income Comparison. https://data.oecd.org/hha/household-disposable-income.htm Olson, Mancur (1965). The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. Harvard University Press. OpenSecrets (2024). Federal Lobbying Hit Record \$4.4 Billion in 2024. https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2025/02/federal-lobbying-set-new-record-in-2024/ OpenSecrets (2024). Revolving Door: Former Members of Congress. https://www.opensecrets.org/revolving-door Sinn, Mike P. (2025). Optimocracy: Causal Inference on Cross-Jurisdictional Policy Data to Maximize Median Health and Wealth. doi:10.5281/zenodo.18356213 {Papanicolas, Irene et al.} (2018). Health Care Spending in the United States and Other High-Income Countries. Papanicolas et al.. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2674671 Trials (). Patient willingness to participate in clinical trials. Trials: Patients' Willingness Survey. https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-015-1105-3 {The Commune} (2024). Pentagon audit failures (\$2.46T unaccounted). The Commune. https://thecommunemag.com/the-pentagon-misplaced-2-46-trillion-an-in-depth-look-at-the-financial-audit-failures {Value in Health} (). Average lifetime revenue per successful drug. Value in Health: Sales Revenues for New Therapeutic Agents. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1098301524027542 {Deloitte} (2025). Pharmaceutical R\&D return on investment (ROI). Deloitte: Measuring Pharmaceutical Innovation 2025. https://www.deloitte.com/ch/en/Industries/life-sciences-health-care/research/measuring-return-from-pharmaceutical-innovation.html {SofproMed} (). Phase 3 cost per trial range. SofproMed. https://www.sofpromed.com/how-much-does-a-clinical-trial-cost Sinn, Mike P. (2025). The Planetary Constitutional Convention. https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/strategy/planetary-constitutional-convention.html Ramsberg, J. and Platt, R. (2018). Pragmatic Trial Cost per Patient (Median \$97). Learning Health Systems. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6508852/ WHO (2019). Polio Vaccination ROI. WHO. https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/sustaining-polio-investments-offers-a-high-return Sinn, Mike P. (2025). The Political Dysfunction Tax. doi:10.5281/zenodo.18603840 Kinch, Michael S. and Griesenauer, Robert H. (2019). Lost medicines: a longer view of the pharmaceutical industry with the potential to reinvigorate discovery. Drug Discovery Today, 24, 875-880. doi:10.1016/j.drudis.2019.01.009 {Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV} (2019). Post-1962 slowdown in life expectancy gains. https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/data/us-life-expectancy-fda-budget-1543-2019.csv {NIH Common Fund} (2025). NIH Pragmatic Trials: Minimal Funding Despite 30x Cost Advantage. NIH Common Fund: HCS Research Collaboratory. https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory Baily, Martin Neil (1972). Pre-1962 drug development costs (Baily 1972). Baily (1972). https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf {Think by Numbers} (1962). Pre-1962 drug development costs and timeline (Think by Numbers). Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save?. https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/ {Think by Numbers} (1966). Pre-1962 physician-led clinical trials. Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save?. https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/ PubMed (). Psychological impact of war cost (\$100B annually). PubMed: Economic Burden of PTSD. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35485933/ Gosse, M.E. (2008). Assessing cost-effectiveness in healthcare: history of the \$50,000 per QALY threshold. Sustainability Impact Metrics. https://ecocostsvalue.com/EVR/img/references%20others/Gosse%202008%20QALY%20threshold%20financial.pdf ICER (2024). Value per QALY (standard economic value). ICER. https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf {Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024)} (2024). Rare Disease Treatment Gap. Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024). https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1 {Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute} (2023). RECOVERY Trial Cost per Patient. Oren Cass. https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs {NHS England; {\'A}guas et al.} (2021). RECOVERY trial global lives saved (~1 million). NHS England: 1 Million Lives Saved. https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/03/covid-treatment-developed-in-the-nhs-saves-a-million-lives/ {Manhattan Institute} (). RECOVERY trial 82× cost reduction. Manhattan Institute: Slow Costly Trials. https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs Rummel, R. J. (1994). Death by Government: Genocide and Mass Murder Since 1900. Transaction Publishers. https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE1.HTM {National September 11 Memorial \& Museum} (2024). September 11 Attack Facts. https://www.911memorial.org/911-faqs {Stockholm International Peace Research Institute} (2025). Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2024. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024 {Stockholm International Peace Research Institute} (2024). Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2023. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2023 CSIS (). Smallpox Eradication ROI. CSIS. https://www.csis.org/analysis/smallpox-eradication-model-global-cooperation {S\&P Dow Jones Indices} (2023). SPIVA U.S. Scorecard Year-End 2023. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/ PMC (1990). Standard Medical Research ROI (\$20k-\$100k/QALY). PMC: Cost-effectiveness Thresholds Used by Study Authors. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10114019/ {United States Supreme Court} (2003). State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. v. Campbell, 538 U.S. 408. https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/USREPORTS-538/USREPORTS-538-408 {Composite estimate based on Orphanet} (). Average Time to Cure Under Current System. GAO (). Annual cost of U.S. sugar subsidies. GAO: Sugar Program. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106144 {James Surowiecki} (2004). The Wisdom of Crowds. Surowiecki. https://archive.org/details/wisdomofcrowds0000suro {World Bank} (). Swiss military budget as percentage of GDP. World Bank: Military Expenditure % GDP Switzerland. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=CH {World Bank} (). Switzerland vs. US GDP per capita comparison. World Bank: Switzerland GDP Per Capita. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CH Tabarrok, Alex (1998). The Private Provision of Public Goods via Dominant Assurance Contracts. Public Choice, 96, 345-362. doi:10.1023/A:1004967519792 {Tax Foundation} (2024). Tax Compliance Costs the US Economy \$546 Billion Annually. https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/irs-tax-compliance-costs/ Wikipedia (). Thalidomide scandal: worldwide cases and mortality. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal {PLOS One} (2019). Health and quality of life of Thalidomide survivors as they age. PLOS One. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0210222 {FDA Study via NCBI} (). Trial Costs, FDA Study. FDA Study via NCBI. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6248200/ UCDP (). State violence deaths annually. UCDP: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. https://ucdp.uu.se/ CGDev (2024). UNHCR average refugee support cost. CGDev. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/costs-hosting-refugees-oecd-countries-and-why-uk-outlier AARP (2023). Unpaid caregiver hours and economic value. AARP 2023. https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/info-2023/unpaid-caregivers-provide-billions-in-care.html {US Census Bureau} (). Historical world population estimates. US Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html CDC (). U.S. chronic disease healthcare spending. CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/chronic-disease/data-research/facts-stats/index.html Statista (2024). US military budget as percentage of GDP. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/262742/countries-with-the-highest-military-spending/ Dave Manuel (2025). U.S. Defense Spending History: 100 Years of Military Budgets. DaveManuel.com . https://www.davemanuel.com/us-defense-spending-history-military-budget-data.php Wikipedia (). US GDP growth rate post-WWII. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post–World_War_II_economic_expansion Wikipedia (2020). US military spending reduction after WWII. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demobilization_of_United_States_Armed_Forces_after_World_War_II {U.S. Senate} (). Treaties. U.S. Senate. https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/treaties.htm {US Census Bureau} (2024). Number of registered or eligible voters in the U.S.. US Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-presidential-election-voting-registration-tables.html {Hutchinson and Kirk} (2011). Valley of Death in Drug Development. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3324971/ VA (2026). Veteran healthcare cost projections. VA. https://department.va.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2026-Budget-in-Brief.pdf {PLOS ONE} (2010). Cost per DALY for Vitamin A Supplementation. PLOS ONE: Cost-effectiveness of "Golden Mustard" for Treating Vitamin A Deficiency in India (2010). https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012046 CNBC (2025). Warren Buffett's career average investment return. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/warren-buffetts-return-tally-after-60-years-5502284percent.html PMC (). Cost-effectiveness threshold (\$50,000/QALY). PMC. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5193154/ {World Health Organization} (2024). WHO Global Health Estimates 2024. World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates {World Health Organization} (2024). WHO Life Expectancy Data by Country. https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy {World Bank} (2024). Expense (\% of GDP) - World. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS?locations=1W {World Bank} (2024). Gross Savings (\% of GDP). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS?locations=1W {World Bank} (). World Bank trade disruption cost from conflict. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict {Federation of American Scientists} (2024). World Nuclear Forces. Federation of American Scientists. https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/ {World Bank, Bureau of Economic Analysis} (2024). US GDP 2024 (\$28.78 trillion). World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US {World Bank} (2024). World Bank Singapore Economic Data. World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/country/singapore {Yale Budget Lab} (2025). The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All U.S. Tariffs. https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april 594 Views 360 Downloads Show more details All versions This version Views Total views 594 230 Downloads Total downloads 360 71 Data volume Total data volume 105.1 MB 20.7 MB More info on how stats are collected.... Versions External resources Indexed in OpenAIRE Communities Keywords and subjects Keywords mechanism-design prize-design public-choice governance-reform implementation-markets cost-effectiveness DALY net-societal-value resource-allocation welfare-optimization Details DOI DOI Badge DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20077587 Markdown [](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20077587) reStructuredText .. image:: https://zenodo.org/badge/DOI/10.5281/zenodo.20077587.svg :target: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20077587 HTML <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20077587"><img src="https://zenodo.org/badge/DOI/10.5281/zenodo.20077587.svg" alt="DOI"></a> Image URL https://zenodo.org/badge/DOI/10.5281/zenodo.20077587.svg Target URL https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20077587 Resource type Working paper Publisher Zenodo Languages English Rights License Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 International No further description. Read more Citation Export Technical metadata Created May 8, 2026 Modified May 8, 2026 Jump up About About Policies Infrastructure Principles Projects Roadmap Contact Blog Blog Support Help FAQ Developers REST API OAI-PMH Contribute GitHub Donate Funded by Powered by CERN Data Centre & InvenioRDM Status Privacy policy Cookie policy Terms of Use This site uses cookies. Find out more on how we use cookies Accept all cookies Accept only essential cookies

Related documents

• Glinka World Soil Prize#414724
• Earthing Technology#701945
• Dirt Finder (DrtFndr): A Marketplace Application for Construction Earthwork#259661
• ## Desert Lizard-Inspired Metaheuristic Optimization Algorithm (DLMOA)#663661
• Problem Planet#61405