Evolution and impact of the strategy to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Guinea

Evolution and impact of the strategy to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Guinea | medRxiv Skip to main content Home About Submit ALERTS / RSS Search for this keyword Advanced Search Evolution and impact of the strategy to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Guinea Moïse Kagbadouno , View ORCID Profile Ronald E Crump , View ORCID Profile Samuel A Sutherland , Rob Sunnucks , Oumou Camara , View ORCID Profile Ching-I Huang , Mamadou B Diallo , Mamady Camara , Favié Béavogui , Dansy Camara , Kevin Allain , Paul E C Brown , Abdoulaye Diaby , View ORCID Profile Bruno Bucheton , Paul R Bessell , View ORCID Profile Emily H Crowley , View ORCID Profile Jean-Mathieu Bart , View ORCID Profile Kat S Rock , Mamadou Camara doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.16.26348467 Moïse Kagbadouno 1 Programme National de Lutte contre les Maladies Tropicales Négligées (PNLMTN) , Conakry, Guinée 2 University Gamal Abdel Nasser of Conakry , Guinea Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Ronald E Crump 3 Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick , Coventry, UK 4 Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick , Coventry, UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Ronald E Crump For correspondence: r.e.crump{at}warwick.ac.uk Samuel A Sutherland 3 Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick , Coventry, UK 5 Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick , Coventry, UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Samuel A Sutherland Rob Sunnucks 3 Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick , Coventry, UK 4 Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick , Coventry, UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Oumou Camara 1 Programme National de Lutte contre les Maladies Tropicales Négligées (PNLMTN) , Conakry, Guinée Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Ching-I Huang 3 Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick , Coventry, UK 4 Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick , Coventry, UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Ching-I Huang Mamadou B Diallo 1 Programme National de Lutte contre les Maladies Tropicales Négligées (PNLMTN) , Conakry, Guinée Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Mamady Camara 1 Programme National de Lutte contre les Maladies Tropicales Négligées (PNLMTN) , Conakry, Guinée Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Favié Béavogui 1 Programme National de Lutte contre les Maladies Tropicales Négligées (PNLMTN) , Conakry, Guinée Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Dansy Camara 1 Programme National de Lutte contre les Maladies Tropicales Négligées (PNLMTN) , Conakry, Guinée Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Kevin Allain 3 Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick , Coventry, UK 6 Centre for Interdisciplinary Methodologies (CIM), University of Warwick , Coventry, UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Paul E C Brown 3 Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick , Coventry, UK 4 Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick , Coventry, UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Abdoulaye Diaby 1 Programme National de Lutte contre les Maladies Tropicales Négligées (PNLMTN) , Conakry, Guinée Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Bruno Bucheton 7 INTERTRYP, Université de Montpellier , CIRAD, IRD, Montpellier, France , Montpellier, France Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Bruno Bucheton Paul R Bessell 8 Epi Interventions Ltd , Edinburgh, UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Emily H Crowley 3 Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick , Coventry, UK 4 Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick , Coventry, UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Emily H Crowley Jean-Mathieu Bart 1 Programme National de Lutte contre les Maladies Tropicales Négligées (PNLMTN) , Conakry, Guinée 7 INTERTRYP, Université de Montpellier , CIRAD, IRD, Montpellier, France , Montpellier, France Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Jean-Mathieu Bart Kat S Rock 3 Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick , Coventry, UK 4 Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick , Coventry, UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Kat S Rock Mamadou Camara 1 Programme National de Lutte contre les Maladies Tropicales Négligées (PNLMTN) , Conakry, Guinée Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Abstract Full Text Info/History Metrics Supplementary material Data/Code Preview PDF Abstract In 2025 Guinea was validated as achieving elimination as a public health problem for the highly pathogenic, vector-borne infection, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) after reaching several years of low-level case reporting. gHAT cases in Guinea have overall seen a large decrease between 2000 and 2024, however there have been notable fluctuations. Transmission modelling was used to assess these trends in observed cases for the foci Boffa East, Boffa West, Dubréka, and Forécariah and evaluate transmission changes. This study quantifies the impact of interruptions due to Ebola and the introduction of new interventions (particularly the rapid diagnostic tests in the passive health system and vector control) in each focus. The model suggests that transmission of gHAT has fallen 97% (83–100%) between 2000 and 2024, with disease burden measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) reduced by 94% (63–100%). We estimated that Ebola interruptions caused an additional 1,147 gHAT DALYs due to the suspension of gHAT activities, however passive screening improvements and the introduction of vector control likely averted 1,719 and 9,038 DALYs respectively. This study quantifies the impact of Ebola related interruptions on gHAT transmission and disease burden and highlights the success of medical and vector control interventions in Guinea. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (www.gatesfoundation.org) through the Human African Trypanosomiasis Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy (HAT MEPP) project [OPP1177824, INV-005121 and INV-061233] (REC, SAS, RS, CH, KA, EHC, KSR), and through the Trypa-NO! project [INV-008412 and INV-001785] (MK, OC, MBD, FB, DC, AD, BB, PRB, JMB, MC). RS was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council through the MathSys CDT (grant number EP/S022244/1). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The Biomedical and Scientific Research Ethics Committee of the University of Warwick gave ethical approval for this work. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Data Availability All data used are available as supplementary data files and as part of an OSF, which also contains the results produced. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/97PS6 Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license . Back to top Previous Next Posted March 18, 2026. 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Share Evolution and impact of the strategy to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Guinea Moïse Kagbadouno , Ronald E Crump , Samuel A Sutherland , Rob Sunnucks , Oumou Camara , Ching-I Huang , Mamadou B Diallo , Mamady Camara , Favié Béavogui , Dansy Camara , Kevin Allain , Paul E C Brown , Abdoulaye Diaby , Bruno Bucheton , Paul R Bessell , Emily H Crowley , Jean-Mathieu Bart , Kat S Rock , Mamadou Camara medRxiv 2026.03.16.26348467; doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.16.26348467 Share This Article: Copy Citation Tools Evolution and impact of the strategy to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Guinea Moïse Kagbadouno , Ronald E Crump , Samuel A Sutherland , Rob Sunnucks , Oumou Camara , Ching-I Huang , Mamadou B Diallo , Mamady Camara , Favié Béavogui , Dansy Camara , Kevin Allain , Paul E C Brown , Abdoulaye Diaby , Bruno Bucheton , Paul R Bessell , Emily H Crowley , Jean-Mathieu Bart , Kat S Rock , Mamadou Camara medRxiv 2026.03.16.26348467; doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.16.26348467 Citation Manager Formats BibTeX Bookends EasyBib EndNote (tagged) EndNote 8 (xml) Medlars Mendeley Papers RefWorks Tagged Ref Manager RIS Zotero Tweet Widget Facebook Like Google Plus One Subject Area Epidemiology Subject Areas All Articles Addiction Medicine (637) Allergy and Immunology (917) Anesthesia (348) Cardiovascular Medicine (4974) Dentistry and Oral Medicine (493) Dermatology (426) Emergency Medicine (674) Endocrinology (including Diabetes Mellitus and Metabolic Disease) (1682) Epidemiology (16207) Forensic Medicine (36) Gastroenterology (1238) Genetic and Genomic Medicine (7250) Geriatric Medicine (751) Health Economics (1092) Health Informatics (5262) Health Policy (1463) Health Systems and Quality Improvement (1825) Hematology (599) HIV/AIDS (1375) Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS) (16466) Intensive Care and Critical Care Medicine (1199) Medical Education (696) Medical Ethics (156) Nephrology (747) Neurology (7552) Nursing (377) Nutrition (1120) Obstetrics and Gynecology (1293) Occupational and Environmental Health (1038) Oncology (3730) Ophthalmology (1087) Orthopedics (406) Otolaryngology (463) Pain Medicine (499) Palliative Medicine (143) Pathology (720) Pediatrics (1852) Pharmacology and Therapeutics (752) Primary Care Research (784) Psychiatry and Clinical Psychology (6099) Public and Global Health (9957) Radiology and Imaging (2515) Rehabilitation Medicine and Physical Therapy (1506) Respiratory Medicine (1264) Rheumatology (657) Sexual and Reproductive Health (799) Sports Medicine (595) Surgery (799) Toxicology (109) Transplantation (318) Urology (307)

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