Spatiotemporal Patterns and Climate-Driven Forecasting of Scrub Typhus: Evidence from South India.

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Climate-Driven Forecasting of Scrub Typhus: Evidence from South India | medRxiv Skip to main content Home About Submit ALERTS / RSS Search for this keyword Advanced Search Spatiotemporal Patterns and Climate-Driven Forecasting of Scrub Typhus: Evidence from South India R Bithia , Muzaffar Ahmad Dar , View ORCID Profile Solomon D Cruz , CL Biji , Manglam Goutam Sinha , Aman Picardo , Aadithya Hrudhay Anand , Bikash Keshari , P Prithviraj , Surendar Manickam , C George Priya Doss , Karthik Gunasekaran , View ORCID Profile John Antony Jude Prakash doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.18.26348670 R Bithia 1 Laboratory for Integrative Genomics, Department of Integrative Biology, School of BioSciences and Technology, Vellore Institute of Technology , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Muzaffar Ahmad Dar 1 Laboratory for Integrative Genomics, Department of Integrative Biology, School of BioSciences and Technology, Vellore Institute of Technology , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Solomon D Cruz 2 Department of Clinical Microbiology, Christian Medical College , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Solomon D Cruz CL Biji 3 Department of Analytics, School of Computer Science and Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Manglam Goutam Sinha 3 Department of Analytics, School of Computer Science and Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Aman Picardo 3 Department of Analytics, School of Computer Science and Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Aadithya Hrudhay Anand 3 Department of Analytics, School of Computer Science and Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Bikash Keshari 5 Department of General Medicine, Christian Medical College , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site P Prithviraj 5 Department of General Medicine, Christian Medical College , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Surendar Manickam 4 Centre for Disaster Mitigation & Management (CDMM) Vellore Institute of Technology , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site C George Priya Doss 1 Laboratory for Integrative Genomics, Department of Integrative Biology, School of BioSciences and Technology, Vellore Institute of Technology , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site For correspondence: karthikgunasekaran{at}yahoo.com Karthik Gunasekaran 5 Department of General Medicine, Christian Medical College , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site For correspondence: karthikgunasekaran{at}yahoo.com John Antony Jude Prakash 2 Department of Clinical Microbiology, Christian Medical College , Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for John Antony Jude Prakash Abstract Full Text Info/History Metrics Data/Code Preview PDF Abstract Scrub typhus remains a persistent public health concern with strong spatial and temporal variability. This study analyses the spatio-temporal distribution, clustering patterns, and forecasting of scrub typhus across five districts, Chittoor, Ranipet, Tirupattur, Vellore, and Tiruvannamalai, using long-term surveillance data from May 2005 to May 2024. We applied spatio-temporal exploratory analysis to identify trends, seasonal behaviour, and inter-district heterogeneity in disease incidence. Hotspot analysis was conducted using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics to detect statistically significant hotspots and coldspot clusters and examine their evolution over time. To support decision-making, we developed statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) based forecasting models using monthly scrub typhus and climatic features. Root mean square error (RMSE), and R-square error ( R 2 ) evaluation metrics are used to compare the performance of the prediction model. Scrub typhus shows clear and recurring seasonal peaks across all five districts, and incidence increases are associated with precipitation, dew point, relative humidity, and vegetation cover. Temperature shows a strong negative correlation, while relative humidity and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) show strong positive correlations in all districts. Hotspot analysis identifies Vellore and Chittoor as persistent core transmission zones, with weaker clustering in surrounding districts. Forecasting results indicate that model performance varies by location. The results reveal persistent hotspots, clear seasonal signals, and short-term forecasts across districts. This integrated spatiotemporal and forecasting framework provides actionable insights for targeted surveillance and timely intervention strategies to control scrub typhus. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement This study is funded by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Christian Medical College, Vellore (IRB Approval No: 15919 dated 22.11.2023). I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Data Availability All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 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Share Spatiotemporal Patterns and Climate-Driven Forecasting of Scrub Typhus: Evidence from South India R Bithia , Muzaffar Ahmad Dar , Solomon D Cruz , CL Biji , Manglam Goutam Sinha , Aman Picardo , Aadithya Hrudhay Anand , Bikash Keshari , P Prithviraj , Surendar Manickam , C George Priya Doss , Karthik Gunasekaran , John Antony Jude Prakash medRxiv 2026.03.18.26348670; doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.18.26348670 Share This Article: Copy Citation Tools Spatiotemporal Patterns and Climate-Driven Forecasting of Scrub Typhus: Evidence from South India R Bithia , Muzaffar Ahmad Dar , Solomon D Cruz , CL Biji , Manglam Goutam Sinha , Aman Picardo , Aadithya Hrudhay Anand , Bikash Keshari , P Prithviraj , Surendar Manickam , C George Priya Doss , Karthik Gunasekaran , John Antony Jude Prakash medRxiv 2026.03.18.26348670; doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.18.26348670 Citation Manager Formats BibTeX Bookends EasyBib EndNote (tagged) EndNote 8 (xml) Medlars Mendeley Papers RefWorks Tagged Ref Manager RIS Zotero Tweet Widget Facebook Like Google Plus One Subject Area Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS) Subject Areas All Articles Addiction Medicine (638) Allergy and Immunology (917) Anesthesia (350) Cardiovascular Medicine (4999) Dentistry and Oral Medicine (494) Dermatology (427) Emergency Medicine (676) Endocrinology (including Diabetes Mellitus and Metabolic Disease) (1690) Epidemiology (16253) Forensic Medicine (36) Gastroenterology (1241) Genetic and Genomic Medicine (7274) Geriatric Medicine (751) Health Economics (1093) Health Informatics (5283) Health Policy (1467) Health Systems and Quality Improvement (1832) Hematology (599) HIV/AIDS (1380) Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS) (16483) Intensive Care and Critical Care Medicine (1203) Medical Education (700) Medical Ethics (156) Nephrology (751) Neurology (7586) Nursing (377) Nutrition (1127) Obstetrics and Gynecology (1295) Occupational and Environmental Health (1039) Oncology (3742) Ophthalmology (1092) Orthopedics (408) Otolaryngology (465) Pain Medicine (501) Palliative Medicine (143) Pathology (721) Pediatrics (1858) Pharmacology and Therapeutics (755) Primary Care Research (786) Psychiatry and Clinical Psychology (6122) Public and Global Health (9984) Radiology and Imaging (2528) Rehabilitation Medicine and Physical Therapy (1516) Respiratory Medicine (1268) Rheumatology (658) Sexual and Reproductive Health (804) Sports Medicine (595) Surgery (802) Toxicology (109) Transplantation (318) Urology (307)

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