Estimating eligibility for GLP-1 receptor agonists for chronic weight management and cardiovascular disease in Australia

Estimating eligibility for GLP-1 receptor agonists for chronic weight management and cardiovascular disease in Australia | medRxiv Skip to main content Home About Submit ALERTS / RSS Search for this keyword Advanced Search Estimating eligibility for GLP-1 receptor agonists for chronic weight management and cardiovascular disease in Australia View ORCID Profile Jasmin Castrillon , Chris Schilling , Sharmala Thuraisingam , Michael W Hii , Priya Sumithran , Peter F Choong , Michelle M Dowsey , Cade Shadbolt doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.17.26348659 Jasmin Castrillon 1 The University of Melbourne, The University of Melbourne , Melbourne, Victoria, Australia BBiomed(Hons) Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Jasmin Castrillon Chris Schilling 1 The University of Melbourne, The University of Melbourne , Melbourne, Victoria, Australia PhD Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Sharmala Thuraisingam 1 The University of Melbourne, The University of Melbourne , Melbourne, Victoria, Australia PhD, MBiostat, BEMech(Hons) Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Michael W Hii 1 The University of Melbourne, The University of Melbourne , Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 2 St Vincent’s Hospital Melbourne , Melbourne, Victoria, Australia MBBS, BMedSci, PGDipSurgAnat, FRACS Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Priya Sumithran 3 Monash University , Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 4 Bayside Health (Alfred Care Group) , Melbourne, Victoria, Australia MBBS, PhD, FRACP Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Peter F Choong 1 The University of Melbourne, The University of Melbourne , Melbourne, Victoria, Australia MBBS, MD, FRACS, FAOrthA, FAAHM Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Michelle M Dowsey 1 The University of Melbourne, The University of Melbourne , Melbourne, Victoria, Australia BHealthSci(Nursing), MEpi, PhD Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Cade Shadbolt 1 The University of Melbourne, The University of Melbourne , Melbourne, Victoria, Australia MA, PhD Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site For correspondence: cade.shadbolt{at}unimelb.edu.au Abstract Full Text Info/History Metrics Supplementary material Data/Code Preview PDF Abstract Objectives To estimate population-level eligibility for glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) medications among adults in Australia, according to Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) approved indications for chronic weight management and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Design Cross-sectional analysis of data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2022 National Health Survey. Setting, Participants Non-pregnant adults aged ≥18 years who are usual residents of Australia and living in a private dwelling. Main outcome measures Total number of adults who are eligible for GLP-1RA medications according to TGA approved indications for chronic weight management and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease, across subgroups defined by body mass index, weight-related comorbidities, and/or socio-demographic factors. Results In total, 39.7% (95% CI 38.4 – 41.0%) of adults in Australia are eligible for GLP-1RA use for chronic weight management, accounting for 7.8 million (95% CI, 7.6 – 8.1 million) individuals. Among those eligible under this indication, 2.9 million (95% CI 2.7 – 3.1 million) adults had no weight-related comorbidities, 3.3 million (95% CI 3.1 – 3.4 million) adults had at least 1 weight-related comorbidity, and 1.7 million (95% CI 1.6 – 1.8 million) adults had at least 2 weight-related comorbidities. The proportion of adults eligible under this indication varied across clinical and sociodemographic factors. Among those eligible under the chronic weight management indication, up to 338.9 thousand (95% CI 271.3 – 406.5 thousand) adults also meet the indication for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Conclusions More than one third of Australian adults are eligible to access GLP-1RAs for chronic weight management, with 3.7-4.3% of adults also qualifying according to the indication for established cardiovascular disease. This study provides a valuable reference to allow policy makers to understand the number of adults in Australia that may benefit from access to GLP-1RA medications under a range of coverage scenarios. The known Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) medications have established benefits for both management of overweight/obesity and the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. The new This study provides the first estimates of the number of adults in Australia who are eligible for treatment with GLP-1RAs across TGA approved indications for chronic weight management and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease, alongside estimates of eligibility under coverage scenarios based on body mass index and comorbidities. The implications Our findings offer a policy-relevant reference of the number of adults who could benefit from treatment, supporting advocacy, coverage decisions, and healthcare system planning. Competing Interest Statement CSch reports receiving grants paid to his institution from the HCF Research Foundation, Medical Research Future Fund, Victorian Cancer Agency, Eli Lilly, Intuitive Foundation, The University of Melbourne, and St Vincents Hospital Melbourne Research Endowment Fund. MWH reports receiving honoraria for lecture to Pillars of Dermatology Practice Symposium, receiving travel support provided by Johnson & Johnson to attend Clinical Surgical Immersion in Bruuges, Belgium; receiving travel support provided by Medtronic to attend Clinical Surgical Immersion in Brisbane, Australia; and being a Chairperson for the HOPE fund. PS reports a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) grant, paid to her institution; reports being a former council member of the Australian and New Zealand Obesity Society (unpaid) and a current member of The Obesity Collective leadership group (unpaid); reports being a co-author on manuscripts with a medical writer provided by Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly; and payment to her institution for participation in advisory and speaking activities from Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly. PFC reports receiving research support for investigator-initiated studies from Medacta, Eli Lilly, Medibank Private, HCF foundation, National Health, Medical Research Foundation, and Medical Research Future Fund; receiving royalties from Kluwer; receiving consulting fees from DePuy, Surgeon advisory board, Stryker Corporation, Johnson and Johnson, and Medacta; reports being on the Editorial Board for EFORT Reviews and Journal of Clinical Medicine; and reports being an international corresponding editor for JAAOS International. MMD reports receiving research support for investigator-initiated studies, paid to her institution, from the Medical Research Future Fund, the National Health and Medical Research Council, Eli Lilly, Victorian Orthopaedic Foundation, Australian Orthopaedic Association Research Foundation, HCF Foundation, University of Melbourne, St. Vincents Hospital Research Foundation, and Arthritis and Osteoporosis Western Australia; reports receiving payment for provision of advice on guideline development for the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, reports receiving a sitting fee as a member of the Osteoarthritis Clinical Research Group Data and Safety Monitoring Board; and reports being a Board Director of the Australian Orthopaedic Association Research Foundation. CSha reports receiving research support for investigator-initiated studies, paid to his institution, from Eli Lilly, St. Vincents Hospital Research Foundation, and Medical Research Future Fund. No other disclosures were reported. Funding Statement JE was supported to conduct this work by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship. MMD is the recipient of a University of Melbourne Dame Kate Campbell Fellowship. No other funding or support was received. Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: Ethics committee of The University of Melbourne gave ethical approval for this work (Reference number: 2025-32594-66417-3). I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Data Availability All aggregated data in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors. All detailed microdata are available only to approved researchers through the Australian Bureau of Statistics DataLab and are not publicly available. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license . Back to top Previous Next Posted March 19, 2026. Download PDF Supplementary Material Data/Code Email Thank you for your interest in spreading the word about medRxiv. NOTE: Your email address is requested solely to identify you as the sender of this article. Your Email * Your Name * Send To * Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas. 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