Closure, Identity, and the Ontology of Theories: A Constraint-Geometric Account of Theory Persistence, Supercession, and Collapse

This paper develops a constraint-geometric framework for analyzing the persistence, revision, and collapse of scientific theories. Drawing on the concept of organizational closure from the biological autonomy tradition (Maturana & Varela, Moreno & Mossio, Barandiaran), I argue that theories are not merely descriptions of identity-under-constraint but are themselves closure structures whose ontological commitments are constituted by constraint-survival. The framework introduces a three-state landscape for theory identity (active, latent, extinct), an operational definition of the invariance core, and a diagnostic criterion—extension-stability—that distinguishes supersession from degeneration and refutation with greater structural precision than existing accounts. As a primary demonstration, the framework is applied to the dark matter problem, generating differential structural diagnoses for the particulate dark matter hypothesis (ΛCDM) and Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND). A secondary application to four current hypotheses in consciousness studies—Integrated Information Theory (IIT), Global Workspace Theory (GWT), the Free Energy Principle (FEP), and the Identity–Recursion–Consciousness framework (IRC)—is developed in Appendix A. The constraint-geometric apparatus was developed in the course of work on IRC, and this methodological relationship is disclosed and addressed. The result is a formal instrument for the epistemology of science that unifies theory-persistence and identity-persistence under a shared constraint geometry.