A systematic review of Nipah virus disease epidemiological parameters, outbreaks and mathematical models

A systematic review of Nipah virus disease epidemiological parameters, outbreaks and mathematical models | medRxiv Skip to main content Home About Submit ALERTS / RSS Search for this keyword Advanced Search A systematic review of Nipah virus disease epidemiological parameters, outbreaks and mathematical models View ORCID Profile Tristan Naidoo , View ORCID Profile Christian Morgenstern , View ORCID Profile Patrick Doohan , View ORCID Profile Rhys Earl , View ORCID Profile Thomas Rawson , View ORCID Profile Richard J Sheppard , View ORCID Profile Joseph T Hicks , View ORCID Profile Sreejith Radhakrishnan , View ORCID Profile Rob Johnson , View ORCID Profile Anna-Maria Hartner , View ORCID Profile Lorenzo Cattarino , View ORCID Profile Kelly McCain , View ORCID Profile Anna Vicco , View ORCID Profile Natsuko Imai-Eaton , Pathogen Epidemiology Review Group , View ORCID Profile Sabine van Elsland , View ORCID Profile Anne Cori , View ORCID Profile Ruth McCabe , View ORCID Profile Sangeeta Bhatia doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.19.26348815 Tristan Naidoo 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Tristan Naidoo For correspondence: t.naidoo21{at}imperial.ac.uk c.morgenstern{at}imperial.ac.uk Christian Morgenstern 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK 2 Section for Health Data Science and AI, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen , Copenhagen, Denmark Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Christian Morgenstern For correspondence: t.naidoo21{at}imperial.ac.uk c.morgenstern{at}imperial.ac.uk Patrick Doohan 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Patrick Doohan Rhys Earl 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Rhys Earl Thomas Rawson 3 Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Thomas Rawson Richard J Sheppard 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Richard J Sheppard Joseph T Hicks 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Joseph T Hicks Sreejith Radhakrishnan 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Sreejith Radhakrishnan Rob Johnson 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Rob Johnson Anna-Maria Hartner 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK 4 Centre for Artificial Intelligence in Public Health Research, Robert Koch Institute , Berlin, Germany Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Anna-Maria Hartner Lorenzo Cattarino 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Lorenzo Cattarino Kelly McCain 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Kelly McCain Anna Vicco 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Anna Vicco Natsuko Imai-Eaton 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Natsuko Imai-Eaton Sabine van Elsland 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Sabine van Elsland Anne Cori 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Anne Cori Ruth McCabe 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Ruth McCabe Sangeeta Bhatia 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , UK Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site ORCID record for Sangeeta Bhatia Abstract Full Text Info/History Metrics Supplementary material Data/Code Preview PDF Abstract We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) characterising the epidemiology, outbreaks and mathematical models of Nipah virus (NiV), an important public health threat in South and Southeast Asia. We extracted 243 parameters, 89 risk factors, 39 models and 23 distinct outbreaks from 119 papers. IgG seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0% to 12.5%. NiV causes severe disease, with pooled case-fatality ratio estimates ranging widely from 9.1% (95%CI: 0.2%-41.3%) in Singapore to 81.9% (95%CI: 71.9%-88.9%) in Bangladesh. NiV’s natural history is poorly characterised; we estimated a median incubation period of 8.77 days (95%CI: 7.53-10.02) based on 8 studies. Transmission parameter estimates were scarce, and all but one central estimate of the basic reproduction number were below 1. NiV mathematical models (n=39) were rarely fitted to data (n=8). All extracted information is accessible via our R package, epireview , a dynamic resource for informing responses to future outbreaks of NiV and related pathogens. Competing Interest Statement AC reports payment from Munich Re for consulting on modelling the likelihood and severity of pandemics. PD reports payment from WHO for consulting on integrated modelling. RM has received payment from WHO for work on MERS-CoV. HJTU reports payment from the Moderna Charitable Foundation (paid directly to the institution for an unrelated project). All other authors declare no competing interests. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), UK Health Security Agency, or the Department of Health and Social Care. NI-E is currently employed by Wellcome. However, Wellcome had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication. AMH received additional funding from Gavi, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust via the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) during the course of the study (grant number INV-034281). These funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Funding Statement All authors acknowledge funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (MR/X020258/1) funded by the UK MRC and carried out in the frame of the Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking supported by the EU; the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Health Analytics & Modelling (NIHR207404), a partnership between UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Imperial College of Science, Technology, & Medicine. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR, UKHSA, or the Department of Health and Social Care. CM acknowledges the Schmidt Foundation for research funding (grant code 6–22–63345). PD, TN, and RJ acknowledge funding from Community Jameel. RJ acknowledges funding from CEPI. KM acknowledges research funding from the Imperial College Presidents PhD Scholarship. TR was supported by the Moh Family Foundation and the Leverhulme Trust (Grant RC–2018–003) for the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science. AV acknowledges funding from Wellcome Trust (226072/Z/22/Z). AMH acknowledges funding from the German Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space (BMFTR) through the CLIMADEMIC project (funding code 01LN2210A) within the framework of the Strategy Research for Sustainability (FONA). The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. For the purpose of open access, the author has applied a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission. Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Footnotes ↵ m Membership of group authorship is listed in the Supplementary Information Figure 2 was updated to include the coordinates of the x-axis for Kerala which we previously accidentally ommited. This is an aesthetic change only. Data Availability All data are available from: https://github.com/mrc-ide/epireview/tree/main/data. https://github.com/mrc-ide/epireview/tree/main/data Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license . Back to top Previous Next Posted March 20, 2026. Download PDF Supplementary Material Data/Code Email Thank you for your interest in spreading the word about medRxiv. NOTE: Your email address is requested solely to identify you as the sender of this article. Your Email * Your Name * Send To * Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas. You are going to email the following A systematic review of Nipah virus disease epidemiological parameters, outbreaks and mathematical models Message Subject (Your Name) has forwarded a page to you from medRxiv Message Body (Your Name) thought you would like to see this page from the medRxiv website. Your Personal Message CAPTCHA This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions. Share A systematic review of Nipah virus disease epidemiological parameters, outbreaks and mathematical models Tristan Naidoo , Christian Morgenstern , Patrick Doohan , Rhys Earl , Thomas Rawson , Richard J Sheppard , Joseph T Hicks , Sreejith Radhakrishnan , Rob Johnson , Anna-Maria Hartner , Lorenzo Cattarino , Kelly McCain , Anna Vicco , Natsuko Imai-Eaton , Pathogen Epidemiology Review Group , Sabine van Elsland , Anne Cori , Ruth McCabe , Sangeeta Bhatia medRxiv 2026.03.19.26348815; doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.19.26348815 Share This Article: Copy Citation Tools A systematic review of Nipah virus disease epidemiological parameters, outbreaks and mathematical models Tristan Naidoo , Christian Morgenstern , Patrick Doohan , Rhys Earl , Thomas Rawson , Richard J Sheppard , Joseph T Hicks , Sreejith Radhakrishnan , Rob Johnson , Anna-Maria Hartner , Lorenzo Cattarino , Kelly McCain , Anna Vicco , Natsuko Imai-Eaton , Pathogen Epidemiology Review Group , Sabine van Elsland , Anne Cori , Ruth McCabe , Sangeeta Bhatia medRxiv 2026.03.19.26348815; doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.19.26348815 Citation Manager Formats BibTeX Bookends EasyBib EndNote (tagged) EndNote 8 (xml) Medlars Mendeley Papers RefWorks Tagged Ref Manager RIS Zotero Tweet Widget Facebook Like Google Plus One Subject Area Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS) Subject Areas All Articles Addiction Medicine (638) Allergy and Immunology (918) Anesthesia (351) Cardiovascular Medicine (5007) Dentistry and Oral Medicine (496) Dermatology (428) Emergency Medicine (676) Endocrinology (including Diabetes Mellitus and Metabolic Disease) (1693) Epidemiology (16267) Forensic Medicine (36) Gastroenterology (1241) Genetic and Genomic Medicine (7280) Geriatric Medicine (751) Health Economics (1093) Health Informatics (5291) Health Policy (1467) Health Systems and Quality Improvement (1832) Hematology (599) HIV/AIDS (1382) Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS) (16492) Intensive Care and Critical Care Medicine (1203) Medical Education (700) Medical Ethics (156) Nephrology (752) Neurology (7598) Nursing (378) Nutrition (1130) Obstetrics and Gynecology (1296) Occupational and Environmental Health (1040) Oncology (3746) Ophthalmology (1093) Orthopedics (409) Otolaryngology (465) Pain Medicine (501) Palliative Medicine (143) Pathology (721) Pediatrics (1858) Pharmacology and Therapeutics (756) Primary Care Research (786) Psychiatry and Clinical Psychology (6133) Public and Global Health (9994) Radiology and Imaging (2532) Rehabilitation Medicine and Physical Therapy (1520) Respiratory Medicine (1270) Rheumatology (661) Sexual and Reproductive Health (804) Sports Medicine (597) Surgery (803) Toxicology (109) Transplantation (319) Urology (308)

Related documents

• A systematic review of Nipah virus disease epidemiological parameters, outbreaks and mathematical models#387701
• Network-based modelling of Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease importation and spread in Uganda using Displacement Tracking Matrix flow data and non-pharmaceutical intervention compliance scenarios#398144
• A simple mathematical model for Ebola in Africa#990198
• Modelling transmission and control of African Swine Fever in Uganda with transportation of infected pigs#956256
• Collection and review of updated scientific epidemiological data on porcine epidemic diarrhoea#129237