Impact of climate-induced human migration on dengue exposure risk in Africa

Impact of climate-induced human migration on dengue exposure risk in Africa | Research Square Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Impact of climate-induced human migration on dengue exposure risk in Africa Desalew Meseret Moges, Jenicca Poongavanan, Graeme Dor, Monika Moir, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9235254/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate-induced human migration has become an important factor influencing infectious disease dynamics in Africa. Using continent-wide projections of climate-induced migration and population change through 2050 under multiple socio‑economic and emissions scenarios, we assess how cross‑border and internal movements shift over space and time, and how these shifts reshape population exposure to dengue. By 2050, climate impacts could force roughly 1.1 million people to move across national borders and nearly 75 million to relocate internally. Cross‑border migration is projected to occur mainly within Southern Africa, while internal migration is expected to concentrate people in cities, border regions, and areas with favorable climates. These mobility patterns are estimated to increase dengue exposure by shifting populations into areas where transmission is already established. By mid-century, cross-border migration alone could expose up to 340,000 additional people across the continent. Our findings highlight the need to integrate mobility dynamics into early public health planning and preparedness efforts. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterial.docx Supplementary information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information

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