Carbon burial outweighs the climate impact of methane emissions across global aquatic ecosystems

Carbon burial outweighs the climate impact of methane emissions across global aquatic ecosystems | Research Square Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Carbon burial outweighs the climate impact of methane emissions across global aquatic ecosystems Yvonne Yau, Ariane Arias-Ortiz, Meredith Holgerson, Nicholas Ray, and 14 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8903639/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Different aquatic ecosystems may have opposing effects on global climate acting as sources and/or sinks of greenhouse gases. The conversion of sediment organic carbon to the powerful greenhouse gas methane is a key indicator of the potential climate impact of a given ecosystem. Here, we assess the lifetime climatic role of aquatic ecosystems by contrasting methane (CH 4 ) emissions with long-term organic carbon burial. Global compilations revealed that the ecosystem-specific ratio of organic carbon burial (kg CO 2 ) to CH 4 emissions (kg CH 4 ) ranged from 20:1 in lakes to 2500:1 in continental shelves. Using 100-year sustained-flux global warming potential and a radiative balance model, we show that most ecosystems currently exhibit a net negative radiative balance (i.e., net cooling or a CO 2 -equivalent sink). The lifetime cooling effect per area was strongest in the coastal ocean and fjords. Freshwater ponds, lakes, and inland wetlands had lowest organic carbon burial to CH 4 emission ratios, requiring ~ 0-700 years after their establishment to shift from a positive to net negative radiative balance. All aquatic ecosystems gradually increase their net climate benefit via long-term enhancement of the ratio of carbon sequestration to CH 4 emissions. Most aquatic ecosystems will thus achieve negative radiative balance over their lifetime. Earth and environmental sciences/Biogeochemistry/Carbon cycle Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Hydrology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files yau20252026.xlsx Dataset 2 yau2025C.xlsx Dataset 1 YauSI.docx Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information

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