Societal vulnerability amplifies the severity of global groundwater risk and creates latent hotspots

Societal vulnerability amplifies the severity of global groundwater risk and creates latent hotspots | Research Square Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Societal vulnerability amplifies the severity of global groundwater risk and creates latent hotspots Sara Nazari, Robert Reinecke, Inge E.M. De Graaf, Dor Fridman, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8764721/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Groundwater stress, despite its growing global significance, is typically evaluated using hydroclimatic indicators that overlook societal vulnerability. Here we present the first global groundwater risk framework that conceptualizes groundwater stress as a hazard, integrated with exposure and a groundwater-specific societal vulnerability index capturing socio-economic resilience, infrastructure and resource availability, and governance. Applied globally at 0.1° resolution for 2001–2020, it shows that 68% of the global population and 48% of groundwater-dependent cropland are located in risk hotspots. Groundwater stress and exposure primarily drive hotspot emergence, particularly in regions such as the Mediterranean and North Central America, whereas vulnerability modulates risk severity. High vulnerability amplifies risk in South and Western Central Asia and reveals latent hotspots in parts of Africa and South America despite lower stress. By incorporating vulnerability, the framework identifies regions where proactive governance and adaptation can most effectively mitigate groundwater risk under rising water demand and climate change. Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files 20260202SupInfoSN.pdf Societal vulnerability amplifies the severity of global groundwater risk and creates latent hotspots Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information

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