Future trends of desalination and wastewater treatment accounting for risks of maladaptation

Future trends of desalination and wastewater treatment accounting for risks of maladaptation | Research Square Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Future trends of desalination and wastewater treatment accounting for risks of maladaptation Marina Andrijevic, Adriano Vinca, Michele Magni, Edward R. Jones, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8681484/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Jul, 2026 Read the published version in npj Clean Water → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The intensifying effects of climate change on global water stress calls for novel strategies to ensure reliable, equitable, and sustainable water supply. As population growth, urbanization, economic activities and overuse of conventional freshwater sources put pressures on water systems, novel technologies are becoming increasingly central to adaptation strategies. In this study, we provide a global assessment of the evolution and future prospects of wastewater and desalination treatment, as critical yet contested options to enhance water security. While technologically mature and rapidly expanding, their future development remains underexamined as a potential source of maladaptation due to its high energy demand and potential carbon footprint. In this study, historical data on capacities of wastewater treatment and key desalination technologies were combined with climate and socioeconomic indicators to analyze historical growth patterns and project future trajectories under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. We present novel projections of wastewater treatment and desalination capacities, energy demands and CO 2 emissions. We find that water-stressed regions like Africa and South Asia – currently only minor contributors to the global wastewater treatment and desalination capacity – are projected to become largest producers of novel water in the second half of the century across all assessed scenarios. Wastewater treatment and desalination emerge from this analysis as indispensable yet imperfect adaptation options, whose future contributions will crucially depend on how their expansion is powered and embedded in broader water and energy systems. While the emissions footprint is non-negligible, it is modest compared to other industrial emitters or projected increases in other key adaptation options such as air conditioning. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Scientific community and society/Water resources Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files supplementaryinfo.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Jul, 2026 Read the published version in npj Clean Water → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 22 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 17 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 12 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 05 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 03 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 03 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 23 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information

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