[2608.14483] No Reduction of Tropical Convection with Warming Expected from Theory or Models Skip to main content Search Submit Donate Log in Search arXiv Press Enter to search · Advanced search Physics > Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics arXiv:2608.14483 (physics) [Submitted on 14 Aug 2026] Title: No Reduction of Tropical Convection with Warming Expected from Theory or Models Authors: Zachary McGraw , Blaž Gasparini View a PDF of the paper titled No Reduction of Tropical Convection with Warming Expected from Theory or Models, by Zachary McGraw and Bla\v{z} Gasparini View PDF Abstract: Theoretical arguments have for decades anticipated substantial weakening of tropical convection as the surface warms, yet convection-resolving models show no robust change in column-integrated convective mass transport and an increase in transported volume. Here we reconcile this apparent discrepancy by demonstrating that the two main theoretical arguments identify a redistribution, rather than a straightforward reduction, of convective motions. A commonly invoked hydrological argument accordingly captures a weakening at a single altitude that is offset by strengthening aloft as the troposphere expands upward. Further, reduced convective mass flux following atmospheric structures that rise with warming simply reflects decreasing air density aloft. Convective motions and transported water are shown to be highly invariant to surface warming along isotherms, and the ability to predict convective responses at individual altitudes is a manifestation of this invariance. Together, these findings recast and simplify long-standing expectations of how the tropical atmosphere will respond to warming. Subjects: Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) Cite as: arXiv:2608.14483 [physics.ao-ph] (or arXiv:2608.14483v1 [physics.ao-ph] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.14483 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Zachary McGraw [ view email ] [v1] Fri, 14 Aug 2026 16:59:14 UTC (826 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled No Reduction of Tropical Convection with Warming Expected from Theory or Models, by Zachary McGraw and Bla\v{z} Gasparini View PDF view license Current browse context: physics.ao-ph < prev | next > new | recent | 2026-08 Change to browse by: physics References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Loading... BibTeX formatted citation × loading... Data provided by: Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer ( What is the Explorer? ) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers ( What is Connected Papers? ) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps ( What is Litmaps? ) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations ( What are Smart Citations? ) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv ( What is alphaXiv? ) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers ( What is CatalyzeX? ) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub ( What is DagsHub? ) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub ( What is GotitPub? ) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face ( What is Huggingface? ) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast ( What is ScienceCast? ) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate ( What is Replicate? ) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces ( What is Spaces? ) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI ( What is TXYZ.AI? ) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower ( What are Influence Flowers? ) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender ( What is CORE? ) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs . Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax ( What is MathJax? ) We gratefully acknowledge support from our major funders , member institutions , , and all contributors. About · Help · Contact · Subscribe · Copyright · Privacy · Accessibility · Operational Status (opens in new tab) Major funding support from