Evaluating the impact of incomplete contact tracing data on urban epidemic dynamics

[2601.14632] Evaluating the impact of incomplete contact tracing data on urban epidemic dynamics Skip to main content Search Submit Donate Log in Search arXiv Press Enter to search · Advanced search Physics > Physics and Society arXiv:2601.14632 (physics) [Submitted on 21 Jan 2026 ( v1 ), last revised 15 Aug 2026 (this version, v3)] Title: Evaluating the impact of incomplete contact tracing data on urban epidemic dynamics Authors: Min-Kyung Chae , Woo-Sik Son , Sang Hoon Lee View a PDF of the paper titled Evaluating the impact of incomplete contact tracing data on urban epidemic dynamics, by Min-Kyung Chae and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract: Contact tracing (CT) is a frontline measure against emerging epidemics, yet in practice it is never complete. The quantitative impact of missing information -- such as untraced cases or unnotified contacts -- on the effectiveness of CT remains insufficiently understood. Using a stochastic agent-based model with sociodemographics from metropolitan areas in South Korea, we simulate how different forms of information loss affect epidemic spreading dynamics. We construct information-loss scenarios based on two types: infector-omission (IO), the omission of infected individuals from the tracing process, and contact-omission (CO), the omission of specific contact events even when the infected individuals themselves are identified. The sensitivity of epidemic dynamics to increasing omission rates differs markedly between the two types: IO produces substantially stronger and more abrupt changes in transmission structure and epidemic outcomes, whereas CO produces more gradual effects. Notably, CT effectiveness breaks down beyond a city-specific threshold -- an IO rate of approximately 4% in Seoul but about 10% in less populous Busan -- underscoring that CT strategies must be tailored to regional population and mobility structure. Both IO and CO scenarios also lead to an increase in the transmission network diameter as information loss grows, indicating that a small network diameter reflects effective contact tracing that limits the depth of transmission chains. Collectively, our results offer threshold estimates and practical guidance for designing robust CT systems in the real world. Comments: 14 pages, 8 figures, 1 table Subjects: Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) ; Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech); Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) Cite as: arXiv:2601.14632 [physics.soc-ph] (or arXiv:2601.14632v3 [physics.soc-ph] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2601.14632 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Related DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-66867-6 Focus to learn more DOI(s) linking to related resources Submission history From: Sang Hoon Lee [ view email ] [v1] Wed, 21 Jan 2026 04:13:08 UTC (3,524 KB) [v2] Thu, 25 Jun 2026 23:11:51 UTC (6,550 KB) [v3] Sat, 15 Aug 2026 11:11:40 UTC (6,550 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Evaluating the impact of incomplete contact tracing data on urban epidemic dynamics, by Min-Kyung Chae and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Ancillary-file links: Ancillary files ( details ) : CT_ABM_supplementary.pdf Current browse context: physics.soc-ph < prev | next > new | recent | 2026-01 Change to browse by: cond-mat cond-mat.stat-mech physics q-bio q-bio.PE References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Loading... 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