Application of machine learning to monster level prediction in tabletop RPG game design

[2607.09196] Application of machine learning to monster level prediction in tabletop RPG game design Skip to main content Search Submit Donate Log in Computer Science > Machine Learning arXiv:2607.09196 (cs) [Submitted on 10 Jul 2026 ( v1 ), last revised 24 Aug 2026 (this version, v3)] Title: Application of machine learning to monster level prediction in tabletop RPG game design Authors: Jolanta Śliwa , Jakub Adamczyk View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract: Designing balanced adversaries is a central but labor-intensive task in tabletop role-playing game (TTRPG) development. In systems such as Pathfinder, each monster is described by many numerical attributes that jointly determine its power, summarized as an ordinal level. We investigate whether machine learning can support designers by predicting this level from a monster's attributes, framing the task as tabular ordinal regression. We introduce what is, to our knowledge, the first dataset built specifically for TTRPG monster-level prediction, derived from publicly available Pathfinder Second Edition data. Using it, we compare classical regression models with rounding schemes, dedicated tabular ordinal regression algorithms, and neural networks with ordinal-aware losses. To mirror real design workflows, we evaluate all models under chronological and expanding-window protocols with several complementary metrics. Results show that tree-based ensembles outperform linear models and neural approaches, achieving near-perfect ordinal ranking and high predictive accuracy. Explainable AI analyses, such as feature importance and error distributions, show that the model is aligned with human intuition and follows patterns grounded in game rules. Together, these results show that machine learning can reliably approximate designer judgments and serve as an effective computer-aided tool for monster balancing and broader TTRPG system design. Subjects: Machine Learning (cs.LG) Cite as: arXiv:2607.09196 [cs.LG] (or arXiv:2607.09196v3 [cs.LG] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.09196 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Jakub Adamczyk [ view email ] [v1] Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:39:53 UTC (728 KB) [v2] Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:41:02 UTC (557 KB) [v3] Mon, 24 Aug 2026 18:23:58 UTC (538 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Additional Features Audio Summary Current browse context: cs.LG < prev | next > new | recent | 2026-07 Change to browse by: cs References & Citations SciX Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer ( What is the Explorer? ) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers ( What is Connected Papers? ) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps ( What is Litmaps? ) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations ( What are Smart Citations? ) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv ( What is alphaXiv? ) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers ( What is CatalyzeX? ) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub ( What is DagsHub? ) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub ( What is GotitPub? ) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face ( What is Huggingface? ) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast ( What is ScienceCast? ) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate ( What is Replicate? ) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces ( What is Spaces? ) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI ( What is TXYZ.AI? ) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower ( What are Influence Flowers? ) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender ( What is CORE? ) IArxiv recommender toggle IArxiv Recommender ( What is IArxiv? ) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs . Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax ( What is MathJax? ) We gratefully acknowledge support from our major funders , member institutions , and all contributors. About · Help · Contact · Subscribe · Copyright · Privacy · Accessibility · Operational Status (opens in new tab)

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