Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration in Australian Real-Time Payment Infrastructure: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study of the New Payments Platform

[2605.02276] Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration in Australian Real-Time Payment Infrastructure: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study of the New Payments Platform Skip to main content Search Submit Donate Log in Computer Science > Cryptography and Security arXiv:2605.02276 (cs) [Submitted on 4 May 2026 ( v1 ), last revised 27 Aug 2026 (this version, v2)] Title: Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration in Australian Real-Time Payment Infrastructure: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study of the New Payments Platform Authors: Nazmus Salehin Sammo View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract: Australia's New Payments Platform (NPP) processes 5.2 million real-time transactions per day under a 2,000 ms end-to-end SLA. With cryptographically relevant quantum computers projected for 2030-2035, financial institutions face a post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration requirement. This paper presents a simulation study of the NIST FIPS 204 and 205 signature standards (ML-DSA, SLH-DSA/SPHINCS+) together with the NIST-selected Falcon algorithm (the forthcoming FIPS 206) in Australian payment infrastructure. Using signing latency measured with liboqs 0.14.0, we simulate 1,000 seasonally mixed days across NPP, RITS and SWIFT routes. All ML-DSA and Falcon variants achieve 100% SLA compliance, with a worst-case NPP p99 overhead of 1.57 ms (0.079% of the SLA budget). We introduce the Crypto Dilution Index (CDI), showing that PQC signing accounts for under 4% of end-to-end latency for every non-SPHINCS+ algorithm, so algorithm choice is not latency-driven. SPHINCS+ is the exception: at NPP volumes its signing time saturates a standard two-unit HSM pool, giving 0% NPP compliance, though it remains viable on the lower-rate RITS and SWIFT routes. A message-format analysis finds that SWIFT imposes no signature-size constraint. SWIFT authentication is applied out-of-band at the SWIFTNet messaging/transport layer, so neither the signature nor the verifying key travels in the Block-4 message text; every NIST PQC signature is size-compatible with SWIFT. Under a conservative harvest-now-decrypt-later scenario with a 2030 quantum arrival, roughly 9.56 billion NPP records generated between 2026 and 2029 would be retroactively exposed. We recommend ML-DSA-65 with ML-KEM-768 as the default across NPP and SWIFT, with Falcon-512 where genuinely in-band, size-constrained carriage is required. Comments: 74 pages, 17 figures, 14 tables Subjects: Cryptography and Security (cs.CR) ; Performance (cs.PF) MSC classes: 94A60, 60G70, 90B22 ACM classes: E.3; K.6.5; C.2.0 Cite as: arXiv:2605.02276 [cs.CR] (or arXiv:2605.02276v2 [cs.CR] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2605.02276 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Nazmus Salehin Sammo [ view email ] [v1] Mon, 4 May 2026 07:00:21 UTC (1,720 KB) [v2] Thu, 27 Aug 2026 01:30:20 UTC (1,714 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Additional Features Audio Summary Current browse context: cs.CR < prev | next > new | recent | 2026-05 Change to browse by: cs cs.PF References & Citations SciX Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer ( What is the Explorer? ) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers ( What is Connected Papers? ) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps ( What is Litmaps? ) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations ( What are Smart Citations? ) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv ( What is alphaXiv? ) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers ( What is CatalyzeX? ) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub ( What is DagsHub? ) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub ( What is GotitPub? ) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face ( What is Huggingface? ) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast ( What is ScienceCast? ) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate ( What is Replicate? ) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces ( What is Spaces? ) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI ( What is TXYZ.AI? ) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower ( What are Influence Flowers? ) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender ( What is CORE? ) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs . Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax ( What is MathJax? ) We gratefully acknowledge support from our major funders , member institutions , and all contributors. About · Help · Contact · Subscribe · Copyright · Privacy · Accessibility · Operational Status (opens in new tab)

Related documents

• Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration in Australian Real-Time Payment Infrastructure: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study of the New Payments Platform#674389
• Quantum computing in finance: a literature review and future directions for trustworthy financial AI.#685568
• Model-to-code transformation pipeline : from quantum model to Python / Jan Rohrbach#623868
• Co-scheduling quantum computing jobs — International Business Machines Corporation (US11972321B2)#607107
• Quantum calculations of the cavity shift in electron magnetic moment measurements#612167