Lower Your Rates: On Claims of a Binary Black Hole Merger-Rate Crisis

[2606.28515] Lower Your Rates: On Claims of a Binary Black Hole Merger-Rate Crisis Skip to main content Search Submit Donate Log in Astrophysics > High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena arXiv:2606.28515 (astro-ph) [Submitted on 26 Jun 2026 ( v1 ), last revised 26 Aug 2026 (this version, v2)] Title: Lower Your Rates: On Claims of a Binary Black Hole Merger-Rate Crisis Authors: Floor S. Broekgaarden View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract: Recent studies have argued that isolated binary evolution simulations generically overestimate the observed local binary black hole (BBH) merger rate, even after adopting observationally motivated variations in the metallicity-dependent cosmic star-formation history, and have interpreted this as motivation for drastic revisions to binary stellar evolution models. We revisit these claims using a compilation of 1490 simulated BBH merger rates from 57 isolated binary-evolution studies, compared to constraints from the LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA Collaboration through GWTC-5. While $\sim$80% of compiled submodels find rates above the GWTC-5 interval, a substantial subset reproduces or underestimates the observed rate. The literature spans several orders of magnitude, reflecting strong sensitivity to assumptions about natal kicks, common-envelope evolution, mass transfer, angular-momentum loss, remnant formation, stellar winds, initial conditions, and star-formation history. Using 2543 pairwise BBH submodel variations constructed to isolate single physical assumptions, we identify which choices most strongly impact the simulated BBH merger rate. Low BBH merger rates are not uniquely associated with strong natal kicks or reduced low-metallicity star formation. Multiple physically motivated assumptions can independently reduce simulated rates to values consistent with observations. We further show that simulated rates cluster into `simulation silos': frameworks producing apparent consensus within a code that does not generalize beyond it. Our results indicate that claims of a universal BBH merger-rate crisis are strongly model dependent, and underscore the importance of exploring the full parameter space across multiple population-synthesis frameworks before concluding that isolated binary evolution is in tension with gravitational-wave observations. Comments: online table and interactive plots available at this https URL Subjects: High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE) Cite as: arXiv:2606.28515 [astro-ph.HE] (or arXiv:2606.28515v2 [astro-ph.HE] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.28515 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Floor Broekgaarden [ view email ] [v1] Fri, 26 Jun 2026 18:10:18 UTC (2,659 KB) [v2] Wed, 26 Aug 2026 21:01:16 UTC (2,659 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Additional Features Audio Summary Current browse context: astro-ph.HE < prev | next > new | recent | 2026-06 Change to browse by: astro-ph References & Citations INSPIRE HEP NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer ( What is the Explorer? ) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers ( What is Connected Papers? ) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps ( What is Litmaps? ) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations ( What are Smart Citations? ) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv ( What is alphaXiv? ) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers ( What is CatalyzeX? ) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub ( What is DagsHub? ) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub ( What is GotitPub? ) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face ( What is Huggingface? ) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast ( What is ScienceCast? ) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate ( What is Replicate? ) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces ( What is Spaces? ) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI ( What is TXYZ.AI? ) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower ( What are Influence Flowers? ) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender ( What is CORE? ) IArxiv recommender toggle IArxiv Recommender ( What is IArxiv? ) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. 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