Learning the Effect of Persuasion via Difference-In-Differences

[2410.14871] Learning the Effect of Persuasion via Difference-In-Differences Skip to main content Search Submit Donate Log in Economics > Econometrics arXiv:2410.14871 (econ) [Submitted on 18 Oct 2024 ( v1 ), last revised 27 Aug 2026 (this version, v4)] Title: Learning the Effect of Persuasion via Difference-In-Differences Authors: Sung Jae Jun , Sokbae Lee View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract: We develop a difference-in-differences framework to measure the persuasive impact of informational treatments on behavior in staggered treatment settings. We introduce two causal parameters, the forward and backward average persuasion rates on the treated, which refine the average treatment effect on the treated. The forward rate excludes cases of "preaching to the converted," while the backward rate omits "talking to a brick wall" cases. The backward rate coincides with the probability of necessity from the literature on probabilities of causation. We identify both persuasion rates under a no-backlash condition and a parallel-trends assumption imposed on a known transformation of response probabilities, taking the identity link as the baseline and nonlinear links as sensitivity checks. We develop estimation and inference using GMM and a limited-information method. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework with an application to a Chinese curriculum reform introduced across provinces at different times. Subjects: Econometrics (econ.EM) ; Methodology (stat.ME) Cite as: arXiv:2410.14871 [econ.EM] (or arXiv:2410.14871v4 [econ.EM] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2410.14871 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Sokbae Lee [ view email ] [v1] Fri, 18 Oct 2024 21:34:10 UTC (223 KB) [v2] Fri, 6 Dec 2024 03:30:53 UTC (227 KB) [v3] Fri, 10 Oct 2025 15:08:59 UTC (301 KB) [v4] Thu, 27 Aug 2026 21:31:08 UTC (70 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: econ.EM < prev | next > new | recent | 2024-10 Change to browse by: econ stat stat.ME References & Citations SciX Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer ( What is the Explorer? ) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers ( What is Connected Papers? ) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps ( What is Litmaps? ) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations ( What are Smart Citations? ) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv ( What is alphaXiv? ) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers ( What is CatalyzeX? ) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub ( What is DagsHub? ) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub ( What is GotitPub? ) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face ( What is Huggingface? ) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast ( What is ScienceCast? ) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate ( What is Replicate? ) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces ( What is Spaces? ) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI ( What is TXYZ.AI? ) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower ( What are Influence Flowers? ) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender ( What is CORE? ) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs . Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax ( What is MathJax? ) We gratefully acknowledge support from our major funders , member institutions , and all contributors. About · Help · Contact · Subscribe · Copyright · Privacy · Accessibility · Operational Status (opens in new tab) Major funding support from (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab)

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