Image Abstraction and Bayesian Inference: A Reconstruction of the Nature of Probability Theory from the Perspective of Cognitive Philosophy

This paper investigates the structural isomorphism between Quxiang Bilei—the classical Chinese cognitive method of pattern extraction, analogical matching, and experiential validation—and Bayesian inference, examined from an epistemological perspective at the level of cognitive updating. By systematically mapping the three components of Bayes’s theorem—prior probability, likelihood function, and posterior probability—onto the three constitutive stages of Quxiang Bilei—pattern extraction, analogical matching, and experiential validation—this paper demonstrates that Bayesian inference is not merely a specialized technical toolset, but rather the mathematical formalization of the cognitive updating structure inherent in Quxiang Bilei. Building upon this isomorphic framework, the paper advances five core philosophical propositions. (1) Objectivity constitutes a statistical convergence phenomenon arising under idealized observational conditions. (2) Long-run experiential validation generates highly stable predictive structures, which human cognitive practice construes as causal relationships. (3) The epistemological meaning of probabilistic calculations can be clarified via their structural alignment with cognitive updating mechanisms. (4) The absolute boundary of artificial intelligence lies not in insufficient computational power, but in the lack of embodied physical anchoring and authentic survival feedback in an open environment. (5) Quxiang Bilei and Bayesian inference share a fundamental, non-accidental isomorphism at the level of cognitive updating. These five propositions are not mere mutual projections between two disparate conceptual frameworks, but genuinely novel insights emerging from their productive dialogue and critical engagement. This work provides a robust epistemological foundation for Bayesianism, offers rigorous mathematical support for the modern transformation of classical Chinese epistemology, and establishes a unified analytical framework for understanding the cognitive essence and fundamental limitations of artificial intelligence.