The Predictive SI Runtime: Dashboard Variables, Output States, and the Falsification Ledger

This paper develops the runtime layer for Predictive Structural Intelligence. Whereas the accompanying predictive architecture defines breach hazard as a way to estimate whether contradiction is being metabolized into binding repair before structural debt, hidden-holder depletion, synthetic trace, and field pressure force contact in a harder form, this paper asks how such forecasts can be executed responsibly in public. Its central claim is that predictive SI becomes dependable only when breach-hazard claims are routed through an inspectable runtime: domain placement, observation lock, time horizon, state classification, dashboard variables, burden-path mapping, hidden-holder analysis, falsifier, revision trigger, output state, downgrade rules, and falsification-ledger obligation. Without this discipline, predictive language can become SI-theater: a confident structural forecast that hides its evidence, claim status, or failure conditions. The paper defines a Predictive Runtime Sheet, a state sequence from Answerable to Fragmenting, dashboard variables such as drift velocity, contact half-life, contradiction recovery lag, repair velocity, hidden-holder dependence, burden export, maneuver saturation, hysteresis, synthetic trace risk, reader-capture risk, and active falsification timing. It also formalizes output states—Verified, Partial, Provisional, Blocked, Containment-first, and No predictive reading justified—and introduces a Falsification Ledger for recording failed, weakened, or revised forecasts. The contribution is methodological: prediction becomes answerable only when the forecast itself can be corrected.