Deduction, Induction and the Art of Clinical Reasoning in Medical Education: Systematic Review and Bayesian Proposal

Background: Clinical reasoning is at the core of medical practice and entangled in a conceptual confusion. The duality theory in probability allows to evaluate its objective and subjective aspects. Objectives: To conduct a systematic review of the literature about clinical reasoning in decision making in medical education and to propose a "reasoning based on the Bayesian rule" (RBBR). Methods: A systematic review on PubMed was conducted (until February 27, 2022), following a strict methodology, by a researcher experienced in systematic review. The RBBR, presented in the discussion section, was constructed in his undergraduate dissertation in Philosophy at Minas Gerais Federal University. Heart failure was used as example. Results: Of 3,340 articles retrieved, 154 were included: 24 discussing the uncertainty condition, 87 on vague concepts (case discussion, heuristics, list of cognitive biases, choosing wisely) subsumed under the term "art", and 43 discussing the general idea of inductive or deductive reasoning. RBBR provides coherence and reproducibility rules, inference under uncertainty, and learning rule, and can incorporate those vague terms classified as "art", arguments and evidence, from a subjective perspective about probability. Conclusions: This systematic review shows that reasoning is grounded in uncertainty, predominantly probabilistic, and reviews possible errors of the hypothetico-deductive reasoning. RBBR is a two-step probabilistic reasoning that can be taught. The Bayes theorem is a linguistic tool, a general rule of reasoning, diagnosis, scientific communication and review of medical knowledge according to new evidence.