Model-based demography: towards a research agenda, by Daniel Courgeau, Jakub Bijak, Robert Franck, Eric Silverman

This chapter aims to contribute to the debate on the role of model-based appraoches, such as agent-based modelling, in the future demography. First we call attention in the development of the discipline since the XVIIth century, and we describe the four successive paradigms related to the period , cohort, event history and multilevel perspectives. We argue that these paradigms are complementary and that demography since its beginnings, has suscribed to the classical scientific research programme launched by the promotors of modern science. Hence we examine how simulation modelling developping in social sciences recently, may help to respond to three main challenges: how to overcome complexity in social research, how to reduce the uncertainty, and how to reinforce its theoretical fundations. We sketch a model-based research programme for demography, looking specifically at interactions between various population systems. We then show how this appraoch confirm to the classical research programma, in order to take advantage of its benefits.