Modal Consciousness Pluralism: Counterfactual Navigation and Phenomenal Experience

I advance modal consciousness pluralism: the claim that a core aspect of conscious experience consists in an agent’s capacity to navigate counterfactual possibilities. Distinguishing prediction from intervention (P(Y|X) vs. P(Y|do(X))), I propose a six-level hierarchy of modal access and a bridge from structural causal models to modal frames. Phenomenological unity is explained via ε-bounded modal coherence across self-relevant submodules, yielding testable links between planning depth and qualities such as vividness, unity, and sense of agency. I contrast the account with Predictive Processing/Active Inference (observation-conditioned prediction), Global Neuronal Workspace (access/broadcast), and Integrated Information Theory (informational structure), arguing that intervention-sensitive structure supplies explanatory resources these frameworks lack. Behavioral assays, neural signatures (frontoparietal coupling, hippocampal simulation, DMN self-projection), and AI benchmarks operationalize the claims. “Level 6” is treated as an idealized limit (a regulative ideal), not a metaphysical thesis. The result is a graded, empirically tractable framework connecting counterfactual competence to phenomenal character.