Conceptio › Archive › PhilArchive
PhilArchive open access

The Mathematical Survival Collapse: A Formal Proof of Prospect Theory’s Failure in Non-ergodic Environments

Xuezhi, Cheng · 2026
PhilArchive · Papers · 2026
Open Source ↗
philosophy
This paper provides a formal mathematical critique of the normative foundations of Prospect Theory (PT) and Expected Utility Theory (EUT). We argue that modern decision theory commits a fundamental ontological fallacy: treating non-ergodic survival processes as if they were ergodic ensemble gambles. By modeling human existence as a multiplicative, 8-dimensional life-state space (encompassing physical, financial, and emotional capitals), we utilize Itô calculus to prove that the "Ensemble Average" (expected value) necessarily diverges from the "Time Average" experienced by an individual trajectory. Our formal proof demonstrates that maximizing ensemble averages leads to a cumulative "volatility penalty" ($-\sigma^2/2$), which, in the presence of absorbing barriers, results in "statistical suicide"—the inevitable collapse of the individual system over an infinite time horizon. Consequently, we propose a radical reinterpretation of behavioral "biases." We show that loss aversion and status quo bias are not irrational cognitive failures, but are instead mathematically optimal stochastic control strategies designed to maximize time-average growth rates and ensure existential survival. This work establishes "survival" as the primary axiom of decision mathematics, shifting the paradigm from static utility maximization to dynamic ergodicity economics.
Conceptio Open Archive

Analyze & explore related research in Conceptio

Connect this record directly into your research workflow or AI agent. Explore citations across open repositories, query full text, and export structured proof bundles.

This document is indexed with metadata only: full text is not available in the archive for this record. Open the official source ↗

Related documents

Record · ID 722506
Retrieved via Conceptio: every document is proof-bundled with source, license, and retrieval metadata.
Bring this data into your agent: Connect via MCP or API · 20 free credits to start · no card required
Read the Docs → · View CLI source on GitHub · Conceptio Open Knowledge Archive