An Alternative Approach to Newcombs Problem

This paper presents an alternative treatment of Newcomb’s problem. In particular, it aims to rationalise one-boxing within the framework of Causal Decision Theory, which is more often used to defend two-boxing. The central claim is that many standard interpretations of Newcomb’s problem overlook the role of the agent’s mental state as a channel of communication with the predictor. When the predictor’s accuracy is reframed as his sensitivity to an agent’s underlying dispositions, the causal evidence behind one-boxing becomes clear. The paper additionally discusses a possible explanation for the persistent philosophical divide Newcomb’s problem has created, arising due to fundamental differences in psychological setups.