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The Unexpected Exam Paradox and the Map & Signpost Fallacy
This paper offers a novel resolution to the classic "Unexpected Exam Paradox." It argues that while mainstream semantic and epistemic approaches are insightful, they fail to fundamentally expose the fallacious nature of the paradox. The core thesis is that the paradox is not a genuine logical puzzle but a structural fallacy rooted in the student's reasoning process, which is termed the "Map & Signpost Fallacy." This fallacy consists in mistakenly using the properties of a terminal state in a logical deduction (a "signpost" of certainty) to retroactively invalidate the entire dynamic process defined by uncertainty (the complete "map"). To support this thesis, the paper introduces the "Principle of Dynamic Integrity" as a criterion, demonstrating that the core assumption underlying the student's backward induction is a "logical mirage"—a state that is logically unreachable. By showing that the student's reductio ad absurdum is unsound from its very foundation, the paradox is not merely solved but completely dissolved.
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