Beyond the Brink: Diagnosing Tipping Points in Public Administration – An Integrated Framework of Systemic Entrapment, Organizational Inertia, and Cognitive Capture

The concept of the tipping point, which describes abrupt and non-linear changes in complex systems, is gaining increasing importance in public administration. However, the relevant academic literature remains fragmented, examining the phenomenon through isolated lenses of system dynamics, governance, or conceptual framing, which hinders a holistic understanding. This article bridges this gap by synthesizing these different approaches through a narrative literature review. As its main contribution, it develops the "Integrated Tipping Point Governance Framework", a new multi-level diagnostic model. The framework posits that the path to a tipping point is not a simple linear process but the result of the interaction of three levels: "Systemic Entrapment" (macro-level structural pressures), "Organizational Inertia" (meso-level institutional lock-ins), and "Cognitive Capture" (micro-level dominant narratives). This framework offers a deeper explanation for the mechanisms that create resistance to change, complementing descriptive theories like Punctuated Equilibrium and providing the necessary diagnostic foundation for applying normative models like Adaptive Governance. Ultimately, the article provides a valuable conceptual tool for analyzing and managing abrupt changes in public policy.