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Why does a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) not imply a 95% chance of containing the mean?
It seems that through various related questions here, there is consensus that the "95%" part of what we call a "95% confidence interval" refers to the fact that if we were to exactly replicate our sampling and CI-computation procedures many times, 95% of thusly computed CIs would contain the population mean. It also seems to be the consensus that this definition does not permit one to conclude from a single 95%CI that there is a 95% chance that the mean falls somewhere within the CI. However, I don't understand how the former doesn't imply the latter insofar as, having imagined many CIs 95% of which contain the population mean, shouldn't our uncertainty (with regards to whether our actually-computed CI contains the population mean or not) force us to use the base-rate of the imagined cases (95%) as our estimate of the probability that our actual case contains the CI? I've seen posts argue along the lines of "the actually-computed CI either contains the population mean or it doesn't, so its probability is either 1 or 0", but this seems to imply a strange definition of probability that is dependent on unknown states (i.e. a friend flips fair coin, hides the result, and I am disallowed from saying there is a 50% chance that it's heads). Surely I'm wrong, but I don't see where my logic has gone awry...
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