Escapist Expansion vs. Endogenous Survival: Feasibility Analysis of Musk's Mars Colonization Plan and the Choice of Human Civilization's Survival Path/逃逸式扩张与内生性存续：马斯克火星移民计划的可行性分析与人类文明存续路径抉择

On the path of human civilization pursuing perpetuity, Elon Musk’s proposed Mars migration plan and the "endogenous survival" theory based on cosmic ethics constitute the core confrontation between two survival paradigms. From the perspective of the Earth civilization community, all analyses and inferences in this paper are based on interdisciplinary scientific principles and universal human nature, without being attached to any specific development model or ideology. The ultimate proposition of civilization survival is rooted in the underlying constraint of irreversible cosmic entropy increase and the paradox of self-organizing evolution of intelligent civilizations. Taking the endogenous survival theory constructed by "cognition of death mechanism - breaking the fatalistic dilemma - implementation of ethical correction" as the reference framework, and the escape expansion represented by Musk’s Mars migration plan as the research object, this paper integrates cutting-edge research results from astrophysics, evolutionary biology, complex system science and other fields, and adopts the paradigm comparative analysis method, entropy weight evaluation method and risk probability model to systematically analyze the feasibility of the two civilization survival paradigms from the perspective of scientific principles. Focusing on the core logic, operation mechanism and survival risks of the two paradigms, this paper does not deny the exploratory value of Musk’s plan, but quantitatively analyzes its feasibility shortcomings in terms of law adaptability, self-organization stability and resource allocation efficiency from the core goal of permanent civilization survival; at the same time, combined with the practical limitations of the plan, it reversely verifies the advantages of the endogenous survival paradigm in scientific logic, risk controllability and long-term sustainability. The research conclusion shows that the escape expansion represented by Musk’s Mars migration plan has a very low probability of long-term success because it violates the law of civilization’s self-organizing evolution, lacks the support of ethical correction, has misplaced resource allocation, and faces practical challenges that are difficult to overcome at present; while endogenous survival with ethical correction as the core and law adaptability as the foundation is more in line with the core principles of civilization evolution and is the optimal path for human civilization to achieve permanent survival. This research not only provides a scientific decision-making tool for civilization survival strategy, but also demonstrates how to incorporate humanistic and ethical elements into the evaluation framework of forward-looking science and technology policies at the methodological level. For the English version, please click the DOI link below.(For the English version, please click the DOI link below.) 在人类文明寻求永续的道路上，埃隆·马斯克提出的火星移民计划与基于宇宙伦理的“内生性存续”理论，构成了两种存续范式的核心对决。本文立足于地球文明共同体视角，所有分析与推论均基于跨学科的科学原理与普世的人性根性，不依附于任何特定发展模式或意识形态。文明存续的终极命题，根植于宇宙熵增不可逆的底层约束与智慧文明的自组织进化悖论。本文以“死亡机制认知-破局宿命突破-伦理修正落地”构建的内生性存续理论为参照框架，以马斯克火星移民计划所代表的逃逸式扩张为研究对象，整合天体物理学、演化生物学、复杂系统科学等领域顶级研究成果，采用范式对比分析法、可行性熵权评估法、风险概率模型，从科学原理层面对两种文明存续范式的成功可行性展开系统性分析。研究聚焦于两种范式的核心逻辑、运行机制与存续风险，不否定马斯克计划的探索价值，仅从文明永续存续的核心目标出发，量化分析其在规律适配、自组织稳定性、资源配置效率层面的可行性短板；同时，结合该计划的实践局限，反向印证内生性存续范式在科学逻辑、风险可控性、长期可持续性上的优势。研究结论表明：马斯克火星移民计划所代表的逃逸式扩张，因违背文明自组织进化规律、缺乏伦理修正支撑、资源配置失准，且面临不可攻克的技术与社会挑战，长期成功可行性极低；而以伦理修正为核心、以规律适配为根基的内生性存续，更契合文明演化的核心原理，是人类文明实现永续存续的最优路径。本研究不仅为文明存续战略提供了科学的决策工具，更在方法论上示范了如何将人文伦理要素纳入远见性科技政策的评估框架。