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Identifiability of Contagion Components amid Environmental Fluctuations in Aggregated Default Counts

Mori, Shintaro
arXiv (All) · Papers
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risk-managementstatistical-mechanics
Can contagion components be identified in aggregated default counts when default probabilities fluctuate with the economic environment? We study this question as an identifiability problem for coarse-grained default-count distributions. We adopt a binomial mixture with a Probit--Normal default proba
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