Almost Sharp Equivalence between Approximate Message Passing and Low-Degree Polynomials

We prove a sharp lower bound for growing-degree polynomial estimation in the Gaussian planted submatrix model. The observation is $$ \boldsymbol{Y}= \fracλ{\sqrt{n}} \boldsymbolθ \boldsymbolθ^{\top}+\boldsymbol{W}, $$ where the coordinates of $\boldsymbolθ$ are independent $\mathsf{Ber}(ρ)$