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Improper Priors Can Never Yield Proper Posteriors

Kelly, Thomas
PhilArchive · Papers
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philosophy
Improper priors are widely used in Bayesian statistics, often defended on grounds of convenience or epistemic humility. A common claim is that once evidence is observed, Bayesian updating can yield a proper posterior, from which inferences may proceed as usual (Taraldsen & Lindqvist 2010). I argue this is mistaken. Since a rational Bayesian must assign non-zero probability to the possibility that data are independent of the parameter of interest, multiplication by an improper prior cannot yield a normalizable posterior. Once improper, always improper.
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