Perceptual Coherence and Perceived Exclusion: AMulti-Level Analysis of Legitimacy Gaps in High-TrustWelfare States

High-trust welfare states confront a structural paradox: expanding formal inclusion has not eliminated experiences of exclusion, but in some contexts appears to coexist with declining institutional trust and perceived alienation. This paper introduces the concept of the perceptual legitimacy gap (PLG)—the divergence between objective structural inclusion and subjective experience of social position—as a framework for analyzing this tension. The argument develops a multi-level model integrating legitimation theory (Beetham), recognition theory (Honneth), welfare regime analysis (Esping-Andersen), and social acceleration theory (Rosa). Across four analytical levels—macro-temporal dynamics, institutional legitimacy, systemic coherence, and subjective exclusion—the paper identifies three structural loci of divergence: the delivery gap (G1), the recognition gap (G2), and the comparison gap (G3). These gaps interact multiplicatively through a threshold condition (D × N × C), under which persistent divergence may transition into structural fragmentation and the emergence of parallel normative orders. The core claim is that perceived exclusion in advanced welfare states is not primarily reducible to material deprivation, but to recognition deficits intensified by shifting comparison horizons, institutional over-distance, and friction reduction in late modernity. Swedish longitudinal and comparative data are used illustratively to probe the model’s predictions. The framework yields falsifiable claims regarding regime-specific vulnerability, legitimacy erosion under universalist rhetoric, and conditions under which fragmentation becomes self-reinforcing. The paper concludes by outlining an operationalizable Perceptual Legitimacy Gap Index (PLGI) and discussing implications for theories of social cohesion and institutional legitimacy.