Measuring Geopolitical Alignment and Economic Growth

[2507.04833] Measuring Geopolitical Alignment and Economic Growth Skip to main content Search Submit Donate Log in Search arXiv Press Enter to search · Advanced search Economics > General Economics arXiv:2507.04833 (econ) [Submitted on 7 Jul 2025 ( v1 ), last revised 9 Apr 2026 (this version, v6)] Title: Measuring Geopolitical Alignment and Economic Growth Authors: Tianyu Fan View a PDF of the paper titled Measuring Geopolitical Alignment and Economic Growth, by Tianyu Fan View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract: This paper introduces a new event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment and provides evidence that it shapes economic growth. The measure is built from 373,020 geopolitical events across 193 countries over 1960--2024, compiled using large language models. With local projections exploiting within-country temporal variation, we find that a one-standard-deviation permanent improvement in geopolitical alignment increases GDP per capita by approximately 10 percent over 25 years. These effects are associated with improvements in domestic stability, investment, productivity, trade, and human capital. In accounting exercises, geopolitical factors account for GDP variations ranging from -30 to +30 percent across countries and time periods. Subjects: General Economics (econ.GN) Cite as: arXiv:2507.04833 [econ.GN] (or arXiv:2507.04833v6 [econ.GN] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.04833 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Tianyu Fan [ view email ] [v1] Mon, 7 Jul 2025 09:56:07 UTC (1,886 KB) [v2] Sun, 13 Jul 2025 12:19:40 UTC (1,871 KB) [v3] Tue, 18 Nov 2025 03:45:32 UTC (1,887 KB) [v4] Sun, 30 Nov 2025 03:16:33 UTC (1,584 KB) [v5] Thu, 2 Apr 2026 14:03:43 UTC (2,169 KB) [v6] Thu, 9 Apr 2026 05:46:07 UTC (2,074 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Measuring Geopolitical Alignment and Economic Growth, by Tianyu Fan View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: econ.GN < prev | next > new | recent | 2025-07 Change to browse by: econ q-fin q-fin.EC References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Loading... BibTeX formatted citation × loading... Data provided by: Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer ( What is the Explorer? ) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers ( What is Connected Papers? ) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps ( What is Litmaps? ) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations ( What are Smart Citations? ) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv ( What is alphaXiv? ) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers ( What is CatalyzeX? ) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub ( What is DagsHub? ) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub ( What is GotitPub? ) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face ( What is Huggingface? ) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast ( What is ScienceCast? ) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate ( What is Replicate? ) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces ( What is Spaces? ) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI ( What is TXYZ.AI? ) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower ( What are Influence Flowers? ) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender ( What is CORE? ) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs . Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax ( What is MathJax? ) We gratefully acknowledge support from our major funders , member institutions , , and all contributors. About · Help · Contact · Subscribe · Copyright · Privacy · Accessibility · Operational Status (opens in new tab) Major funding support from

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